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Certification Revenue Estimates
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2024-25
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2022-23 (Revised July 2022)
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2022-23
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2020-21 (Revised July 2020)
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2020-21
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2018-19 (Revised July 2018)
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2018-19
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2016-17
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2014-15
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2012-13
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2010-11
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2008-09 (PDF)
- Certification Revenue Estimate 2006-07
A CLOSER LOOK
Certification Revenue Estimate
October 2023
The Comptroller issues the Biennial Revenue Estimate before the regular legislative session convenes in January to project the amount of revenue available for lawmakers to spend on state programs through the following biennium. The Certification Revenue Estimate — provided after the session ends, and this year after two special sessions — revises projections to reflect legislative activity and current economic information.
In the 2023 CRE, after accounting for statutory transfers, balances on hand at the close of the 2022-23 biennium and expected revenue collections and adjustments, the state will have a total of $194.57 billion in General Revenue-related funds available. This revenue will support general-purpose spending of $176.28 billion for the 2024-25 biennium, resulting in an expected ending General Revenue-related certification balance of $18.29 billion. In view of the significant risks to the economic outlook, revenue is estimated conservatively for the 2024-25 biennium.
Revenue Available for General-Purpose Spending
in the 2024-25 Biennium
| Description | Oper ation |
2022-23 ACTUAL | 2024-25 PROJECTED | Notes In Billions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Revenue-Related (GR-R) Tax Collections |
plus $138.63 | plus $147.11 | ||
| Other GR-R Revenues | plus $20.68 | plus $19.91 | ||
| Total GR-R Revenues | equals $159.31 | equals $167.02 | ||
|
Beginning Balance (Funds carried forward from previous biennium) |
plus $12.56 | plus $38.65 | ||
|
Total GR-R Revenue & Fund Balances |
equals $171.87 | equals $205.67 | SUBTOTAL | |
| Revenue Reserved for Transfer of Unencumbered and Unobligated General Revenue Fund Balance to the Economic Stabilization Fund | minus $2.52 | minus $0 | ||
| Revenue Reserved for Transfer to the Economic Stabilization Fund | minus $6.69 | minus $5.26 | ||
| Revenue Reserved for Transfer to the State Highway Fund | minus $6.69 | minus $5.84 | ||
| Total Revenue Available for General-Purpose Spending | equals $155.96 | equals $194.57 | TOTAL |
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Revenue and Balance Transfers to the State Highway Fund and Rainy Day Fund
SEVERANCE TAX REVENUE TRANSFERS
TO THE ESF AND SHF
The Rainy Day Fund will have
a projected balance of
$23.77 BILLION
AT THE END OF FISCAL 2025. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT INTEREST AND INVESTMENT EARNINGS, AND ABSENT ANY ADDITIONAL LEGISLATIVE APPROPRIATIONS.
The State Highway Fund (SHF) and Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF or Rainy Day Fund) receive required transfers of tax revenue. In addition, the ESF will receive $2.52 billion from the fiscal 2023 unencumbered and unobligated ending general revenue balance. Also, the SHF will receive:
- $2.5 billion in sales tax revenue in each year of the 2024-25 biennium.
- An estimated $674 million in fiscal 2024 and $724 million in fiscal 2025 in motor vehicle sales tax revenue.