Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, “Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey,” September 25, 2017. The average number of days businesses were either completely shut down or experienced a reduction in revenue/production is 15.4. Because 59 percent of firms that experienced a reduction in revenue or production reported ongoing reductions, it is assumed that productivity losses continuing beyond the date of the survey are counterbalanced by the 41 percent of firms that did not experience reduced revenue/production.
Andrea Hsu and Becky Sullivan, “In Houston, Most Hospitals ‘Up And Fully Functional,’”All Things Considered, National Public Radio (August 30, 2017). Although some hospitals were evacuated, many remained operational or entered “ride-out” mode in which outpatient services were postposed while inpatient services continued; only four days are assumed for disruption in service.
Industries are assumed to compete locally because goods and services could be obtained from neighboring counties that were not affected by the storm; this is thus a more conservative estimate. Some industries, however, were disproportionately affected because of the high number of businesses located in Texas relative to the nation. These categories in the North American Industry Classification System with a high location quotient, a measure of industrial concentration, are treated differently: 211 Oil and Gas Extraction, 213 Support Activities for Mining and 486 Pipeline Transportation had an LQ > 4 for Texas and were considered industry-level (exogenous) production.
A discount rate of .277 was applied to 42 Wholesale Trade and 44-45 Retail Trade as prescribed by experts at REMI, Inc.
The amount of funds flowing through the state of Texas are being updated as new costs are incurred and new information is received. The figures presented were determined by the best data available as of Nov. 30, 2017.
Construction is spread by individual industry and output. Equipment is spread by population. Consumer spending is spread by commodity and consumption across these categories: new motor vehicles, net purchase of used motor vehicles, motor vehicle parts and accessories, furniture and furnishings, household appliances, glassware, tableware and household utensils, tools and equipment for house and garden, food and nonalcoholic beverages purchased for off-premises consumption, alcoholic beverages purchased for off-premises consumption, food produced and consumed on farms, men and boys’ clothing, women and girls’ clothing, children and infants’ clothing, other clothing materials and footwear, motor fuels, lubricants and fluids, fuel oil and other fuels, pharmaceutical and other medical products, household supplies, personal care products, rental of tenant-occupied nonfarm housing, group housing, physician services, dental services, paramedical services, hospitals, nursing homes, other motor vehicle services, purchased meals and beverages, accommodations, personal care and clothing services, social services and religious activities and household maintenance.
For example, on Nov. 17, 2017, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced it would award $5.024 billion in community development block grants for hard-hit areas in Texas; the expenditure timeline was unknown at the time of publication, however, and therefore is not included in this study. See “HUD Provides $5 Billion To Help Texas Recover From Harvey,” Office of the Texas Governor, November 17, 2017.