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Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

Young Texans: Demographic Overview PART 1 OF A TWO-PART SERIES

by Olga Garza, David Green, Spencer Grubbs and Shannon Halbrook Published February 2020

Texas is growing fast, and unlike many other states, its young population is growing as well. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, one of every 10 persons under the age of 18 in the U.S. lives in Texas.

This is the first of a two-part series on young Texans. In this issue, we’ll take a look at what’s driving our state’s population growth and the demographic characteristics of young Texans. Next month, we’ll explore the educational landscape and job prospects for this growing segment of our population.

What Drives Population Growth

The Census Bureau estimated Texas’ total population at 29 million in 2019, and the Texas Demographic Center (TDC) projects it will rise to about 47.3 million by 2050. In addition to the “natural” increase driven by births, this surge is being driven by people attracted to Texas by our strong economy.

Thus, population growth in Texas is based on two elements: natural increase and net migration from other states and nations.

Natural increase occurs when the state’s birth rate is higher than its death rate. Natural increase is the primary source of Texas population growth, although it has declined somewhat in recent years — from nearly 213,600 additional residents in 2011 to about 175,900 in 2019 — according to Census Bureau estimates. Texas’ natural increase in 2019, however, ranked second only to California’s, the nation’s most populous state.

Net migration is the sum of domestic migration and international migration minus out-migration (i.e., those leaving the state). Since 2011, total net migration to Texas has varied, reaching a recent peak in 2015, receding sharply thereafter and then surging again in 2019 (Exhibit 1). Net domestic migration followed a similar pattern, falling sharply after 2015 and then coming back strongly, increasing by nearly 50 percent in 2019. International migration, meanwhile, has fallen by nearly 45 percent since 2015.

Even so, between 2010 and 2019, Texas saw the second-highest cumulative net migration among states, with more than 1.9 million new residents (Exhibit 2). In 2018 (most recent data available), Texas’ largest source of net domestic migration was California, with more than 48,000, followed by Florida, Missouri and Maryland.

Within the state, TDC projects the largest population increases around Texas’ thriving urban areas, as expected, but also in areas of West Texas and the Panhandle (Exhibit 3). Some areas of the Permian Basin region, in fact, are expected to see more than 300 percent population growth by 2050, driven largely by the area’s oil industry.

Exhibit 1: Elements of Population Growth in Texas, 2011-2019

Exhibit 1
Year Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Total Migration
2011 213,583 69,059 120,672 189,731
2012 2208,912 84,959 141,740 226,699
2013 2205,821 79,798 107,657 187,455
2014 2203,609 107,045 160,260 267,305
2015 2214,427 117,660 172,048 289,708
2016 2212,171 110,866 120,910 231,776
2017 2197,199 98,188 84,790 182,978
2018 2177,745 71,278 83,795 155,073
2019 2175,878 65,044 125,660 190,704

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Exhibit 2: Cumulative Net Migration, April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2019: Top and Bottom Five States

States with Highest Net Migration
Florida 2,396,653
Texas 1,964,386
North Carolina 639,170
Washington 595,848
Arizona 571,043
States with Lowest Net Migration
Connecticut -63,899
Michigan -73,053
New Jersey -192,493
Illinois -622,928
New York -681,210

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Exhibit 3: Projected Population Change in Texas Counties, 2020 to 2050

County Projected 2020 population Projected 2050 population Difference Percentage Difference
Anderson County 58198 52597 -5601 -9.6%
Andrews County 22268 100627 78359 351.9%
Angelina County 90437 90638 201 0.2%
Aransas County 27699 46198 18499 66.8%
Archer County 8344 6349 -1995 -23.9%
Armstrong County 1948 1712 -236 -12.1%
Atascosa County 51831 73187 21356 41.2%
Austin County 30402 33352 2950 9.7%
Bailey County 7692 9045 1353 17.6%
Bandera County 21246 20087 -1159 -5.5%
Bastrop County 86103 124818 38715 45.0%
Baylor County 3624 3569 -55 -1.5%
Bee County 34445 39564 5119 14.9%
Bell County 353615 482318 128703 36.4%
Bexar County 2093427 3343929 1250502 59.7%
Blanco County 11504 12594 1090 9.5%
Borden County 685 663 -22 -3.2%
Bosque County 17765 14388 -3377 -19.0%
Bowie County 92568 84047 -8521 -9.2%
Brazoria County 375842 629936 254094 67.6%
Brazos County 229403 364929 135526 59.1%
Brewster County 9133 7799 -1334 -14.6%
Briscoe County 1568 1374 -194 -12.4%
Brooks County 7175 6102 -1073 -15.0%
Brown County 38923 35237 -3686 -9.5%
Burleson County 17718 18255 537 3.0%
Burnet County 48196 61402 13206 27.4%
Caldwell County 44284 62024 17740 40.1%
Calhoun County 22840 23912 1072 4.7%
Callahan County 13456 13595 139 1.0%
Cameron County 427879 413004 -14875 -3.5%
Camp County 13322 14814 1492 11.2%
Carson County 5799 5271 -528 -9.1%
Cass County 30326 25450 -4876 -16.1%
Castro County 7103 4605 -2498 -35.2%
Chambers County 42302 77273 34971 82.7%
Cherokee County 52178 50305 -1873 -3.6%
Childress County 7062 6727 -335 -4.7%
Clay County 9787 6309 -3478 -35.5%
Cochran County 3348 3832 484 14.5%
Coke County 3215 2953 -262 -8.1%
Coleman County 8478 7925 -553 -6.5%
Collin County 1039202 2444316 1405114 135.2%
Collingsworth County 3210 3544 334 10.4%
Colorado County 21273 20572 -701 -3.3%
Comal County 147536 389328 241792 163.9%
Comanche County 13075 8960 -4115 -31.5%
Concho County 4147 3856 -291 -7.0%
Cooke County 39727 39797 70 0.2%
Coryell County 78315 86254 7939 10.1%
Cottle County 1510 1539 29 1.9%
Crane County 6209 18418 12209 196.6%
Crockett County 4040 4219 179 4.4%
Crosby County 6464 6604 140 2.2%
Culberson County 2245 1590 -655 -29.2%
Dallam County 7237 9279 2042 28.2%
Dallas County 2733926 3858686 1124760 41.1%
Dawson County 13592 13269 -323 -2.4%
De Witt County 21737 24879 3142 14.5%
Deaf Smith County 18143 15862 -2281 -12.6%
Delta County 5367 5006 -361 -6.7%
Denton County 897869 2323056 1425187 158.7%
Dickens County 2174 1677 -497 -22.9%
Dimmit County 11743 19067 7324 62.4%
Donley County 3410 2589 -821 -24.1%
Duval County 11796 9970 -1826 -15.5%
Eastland County 18205 15304 -2901 -15.9%
Ector County 184838 494413 309575 167.5%
Edwards County 1991 1640 -351 -17.6%
El Paso County 876105 1043982 167877 19.2%
Ellis County 177721 267977 90256 50.8%
Erath County 41526 51307 9781 23.6%
Falls County 16603 13820 -2783 -16.8%
Fannin County 34597 32934 -1663 -4.8%
Fayette County 26086 30148 4062 15.6%
Fisher County 3985 3693 -292 -7.3%
Floyd County 5786 4220 -1566 -27.1%
Foard County 1240 1181 -59 -4.8%
Fort Bend County 840214 2254963 1414749 168.4%
Franklin County 10924 11553 629 5.8%
Freestone County 19860 17774 -2086 -10.5%
Frio County 20024 28832 8808 44.0%
Gaines County 22121 45004 22883 103.4%
Galveston County 355178 578719 223541 62.9%
Garza County 6784 7924 1140 16.8%
Gillespie County 26191 28729 2538 9.7%
Glasscock County 1365 1485 120 8.8%
Goliad County 7717 8880 1163 15.1%
Gonzales County 21347 24352 3005 14.1%
Gray County 24252 34435 10183 42.0%
Grayson County 131758 151025 19267 14.6%
Gregg County 125729 123702 -2027 -1.6%
Grimes County 28928 32369 3441 11.9%
Guadalupe County 170264 351154 180890 106.2%
Hale County 33202 22050 -11152 -33.6%
Hall County 3305 2918 -387 -11.7%
Hamilton County 8220 8167 -53 -0.6%
Hansford County 5820 6471 651 11.2%
Hardeman County 3870 3505 -365 -9.4%
Hardin County 56485 54538 -1947 -3.4%
Harris County 4978446 7900994 2922548 58.7%
Harrison County 68246 69379 1133 1.7%
Hartley County 6067 6090 23 0.4%
Haskell County 6197 7812 1615 26.1%
Hays County 234895 743171 508276 216.4%
Hemphill County 4644 11519 6875 148.0%
Henderson County 81177 78577 -2600 -3.2%
Hidalgo County 870357 1032453 162096 18.6%
Hill County 35673 31757 -3916 -11.0%
Hockley County 24636 28260 3624 14.7%
Hood County 58642 82222 23580 40.2%
Hopkins County 37040 36741 -299 -0.8%
Houston County 22620 18736 -3884 -17.2%
Howard County 41236 71192 29956 72.6%
Hudspeth County 3400 2392 -1008 -29.6%
Hunt County 96228 155128 58900 61.2%
Hutchinson County 21461 20042 -1419 -6.6%
Irion County 1508 1260 -248 -16.4%
Jack County 8841 8097 -744 -8.4%
Jackson County 15899 22862 6963 43.8%
Jasper County 35525 30941 -4584 -12.9%
Jeff Davis County 2113 1454 -659 -31.2%
Jefferson County 258670 255423 -3247 -1.3%
Jim Hogg County 5077 3935 -1142 -22.5%
Jim Wells County 42890 43088 198 0.5%
Johnson County 171701 237420 65719 38.3%
Jones County 19735 18192 -1543 -7.8%
Karnes County 15627 126431 110804 709.1%
Kaufman County 125133 218922 93789 75.0%
Kendall County 46306 138957 92651 200.1%
Kenedy County 476 546 70 14.7%
Kent County 795 784 -11 -1.4%
Kerr County 52267 56080 3813 7.3%
Kimble County 4344 3322 -1022 -23.5%
King County 309 359 50 16.2%
Kinney County 3462 3123 -339 -9.8%
Kleberg County 30987 28144 -2843 -9.2%
Knox County 3937 4443 506 12.9%
La Salle County 8309 12898 4589 55.2%
Lamar County 50014 44041 -5973 -11.9%
Lamb County 12776 8867 -3909 -30.6%
Lampasas County 21037 22531 1494 7.1%
Lavaca County 20735 30624 9889 47.7%
Lee County 17595 18280 685 3.9%
Leon County 17707 19107 1400 7.9%
Liberty County 85270 118081 32811 38.5%
Limestone County 23544 21199 -2345 -10.0%
Lipscomb County 3651 4082 431 11.8%
Live Oak County 12030 13088 1058 8.8%
Llano County 19452 20657 1205 6.2%
Loving County 92 77 -15 -16.3%
Lubbock County 317209 474272 157063 49.5%
Lynn County 5588 4206 -1382 -24.7%
Madison County 14527 19122 4595 31.6%
Marion County 10294 8155 -2139 -20.8%
Martin County 6044 11695 5651 93.5%
Mason County 3899 3333 -566 -14.5%
Matagorda County 37063 33253 -3810 -10.3%
Maverick County 59937 67015 7078 11.8%
McCulloch County 8660 8523 -137 -1.6%
McLennan County 253060 289089 36029 14.2%
McMullen County 783 736 -47 -6.0%
Medina County 50604 61824 11220 22.2%
Menard County 2188 1852 -336 -15.4%
Midland County 187362 573085 385723 205.9%
Milam County 24635 22190 -2445 -9.9%
Mills County 4870 4285 -585 -12.0%
Mitchell County 9865 10440 575 5.8%
Montague County 19199 15318 -3881 -20.2%
Montgomery County 613932 1483476 869544 141.6%
Moore County 21573 23336 1763 8.2%
Morris County 12448 9884 -2564 -20.6%
Motley County 1172 1015 -157 -13.4%
Nacogdoches County 64105 57618 -6487 -10.1%
Navarro County 47984 41970 -6014 -12.5%
Newton County 13724 10725 -2999 -21.9%
Nolan County 15642 15936 294 1.9%
Nueces County 383707 510636 126929 33.1%
Ochiltree County 11309 15154 3845 34.0%
Oldham County 2200 2127 -73 -3.3%
Orange County 86155 87825 1670 1.9%
Palo Pinto County 27859 23676 -4183 -15.0%
Panola County 24576 23990 -586 -2.4%
Parker County 135621 194803 59182 43.6%
Parmer County 9200 5757 -3443 -37.4%
Pecos County 16548 18116 1568 9.5%
Polk County 49091 53749 4658 9.5%
Potter County 122708 114659 -8049 -6.6%
Presidio County 5906 2654 -3252 -55.1%
Rains County 11378 10842 -536 -4.7%
Randall County 138102 250003 111901 81.0%
Reagan County 4226 8145 3919 92.7%
Real County 3407 3190 -217 -6.4%
Red River County 12610 10459 -2151 -17.1%
Reeves County 15707 22000 6293 40.1%
Refugio County 7573 7559 -14 -0.2%
Roberts County 983 1056 73 7.4%
Robertson County 16888 16915 27 0.2%
Rockwall County 102241 211545 109304 106.9%
Runnels County 11009 12001 992 9.0%
Rusk County 52765 47883 -4882 -9.3%
Sabine County 9936 6816 -3120 -31.4%
San Augustine County 8405 6538 -1867 -22.2%
San Jacinto County 28844 35577 6733 23.3%
San Patricio County 71325 86280 14955 21.0%
San Saba County 5873 4931 -942 -16.0%
Schleicher County 3312 3855 543 16.4%
Scurry County 18381 23405 5024 27.3%
Shackelford County 3405 3251 -154 -4.5%
Shelby County 25545 22031 -3514 -13.8%
Sherman County 3276 3538 262 8.0%
Smith County 235138 289204 54066 23.0%
Somervell County 9294 10315 1021 11.0%
Starr County 64731 62849 -1882 -2.9%
State of Texas 29677772 47342417 17664645 59.5%
Stephens County 9570 9051 -519 -5.4%
Sterling County 1252 1326 74 5.9%
Stonewall County 1523 1571 48 3.2%
Sutton County 4381 4225 -156 -3.6%
Swisher County 7414 5555 -1859 -25.1%
Tarrant County 2143603 3184835 1041232 48.6%
Taylor County 139453 154007 14554 10.4%
Terrell County 1054 1017 -37 -3.5%
Terry County 13040 15209 2169 16.6%
Throckmorton County 1519 1174 -345 -22.7%
Titus County 32952 30238 -2714 -8.2%
Tom Green County 123273 170294 47021 38.1%
Travis County 1291415 1974018 682603 52.9%
Trinity County 14233 11637 -2596 -18.2%
Tyler County 21343 19378 -1965 -9.2%
Upshur County 41654 48468 6814 16.4%
Upton County 3983 6557 2574 64.6%
Uvalde County 27937 32332 4395 15.7%
Val Verde County 48253 41553 -6700 -13.9%
Van Zandt County 55469 59003 3534 6.4%
Victoria County 97892 126847 28955 29.6%
Walker County 74068 104305 30237 40.8%
Waller County 50739 79199 28460 56.1%
Ward County 13592 33336 19744 145.3%
Washington County 35155 35932 777 2.2%
Webb County 276183 308573 32390 11.7%
Wharton County 41941 40449 -1492 -3.6%
Wheeler County 5783 6421 638 11.0%
Wichita County 133138 121337 -11801 -8.9%
Wilbarger County 13038 10057 -2981 -22.9%
Willacy County 22134 19226 -2908 -13.1%
Williamson County 589861 1638796 1048935 177.8%
Wilson County 51800 80564 28764 55.5%
Winkler County 9295 23352 14057 151.2%
Wise County 65806 76958 11152 16.9%
Wood County 45292 51939 6647 14.7%
Yoakum County 9225 15398 6173 66.9%
Young County 18712 17516 -1196 -6.4%
Zapata County 14409 12816 -1593 -11.1%
Zavala County 12682 14261 1579 12.5%

Source: Texas Demographic Center


Older, but Younger

Texas’ population is growing across all population groups. Between 2010 and 2018, Texas added about 3.5 million residents, more than any other state. That’s a 13.9 percent increase, more than twice the nation’s 5.8 percent growth. Texas was one of the fastest-growing states in this period — a remarkable feat considering the state’s already large population.

Texas is aging as the huge baby-boom generation enters its retirement years, as is the nation and the entire developed world. In the 2010-2018 period, the number of Texans aged 65 and older rose by 1 million, a 38.5 percent increase; in the U.S., growth for this age group was 30.2 percent.

Where Texas stands out, however, is its under-18 population growth.

Since 2010, Texas saw the highest rate of under-18 population growth among the six most populous states and the second-highest in the nation, behind North Dakota. In four of the six most populous states, the under-18 population actually fell in this period — as it did in the U.S. as a whole (Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 4: Change in the Under-18 Population of the U.S. and the Six Largest States, 2010-2018

State 2010 under-18 population 2018 under-18 population Total Change Percent Change
Texas 6,877,757 7,398,099 520,342 7.6%
Florida 3,997,523 4,229,081 231,558 5.8
California 9,280,524 8,989,955 -290,569 -3.1
Pennsylvania 2,786,430 2,648,911 -137,519 -4.9
New York 4,319,807 4,068,102 -251,705 -5.8
Illinois 3,123,255 2,857,266 -265,989 -8.5
United States 74,120,770 73,399,342 -721,428 -1.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


In numerical terms, Texas’ increase of 520,342 children between 2010 and 2018 topped that of all other states and far exceeded second-place Florida’s increase of 231,588. The nation’s total under-18 population fell by more than 700,000.

Looking Toward 2050

TDC projections through 2050 show these under-18 population growth trends continuing steadily. In the state as a whole, TDC predicts a 43 percent rise in the under-18 population by 2050, or 3.2 million more children. That’s more than seven times the 5.8 percent growth rate expected for the nation’s child population (Exhibit 5). By 2050, 22.7 percent of Texas’ population will be under 18.

Unsurprisingly, TDC expects urban counties to top the list in numerical growth, with Harris County alone adding more than half a million children by 2050. Most of the 10 Texas counties with the highest projected under-18 growth will more than double their child populations (Exhibit 6).

Exhibit 7 lists the 10 counties TDC expects to have the fastest rate of under-18 growth. Andrews County, near Midland and Odessa, could see its under-18 population more than quadruple. In Kendall County, north of San Antonio, and Hays County, part of the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan area, the number of children could triple.

Exhibit 5: Projected Texas and U.S. Population Percentage Growth, 2020-2050

Projected Texas Population Growth 2020-2050
2020 2050
Total population (millions) 29.7 47.3
Total under age 18 (millions) 7.5 10.7
Share under age 18 25.3% 22.7%
Percent growth in under-18 population 43.0%
Projected U.S. Population Growth 2020-2050
2020 2050
Total population (millions) 332.6 388.9
Total under age 18 (millions) 73.6 78.2
Share under age 18 22.2% 20.1%
Percent growth in under-18 population 5.8%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Texas Demographic Center


Exhibit 6: Top Texas Counties for Projected Under-18 Population Growth, 2020-2050

210,803
County Rank 2020 2050 Total Change Percent Change
Harris 1 1,330,726 1,882,981 552,255 41.5%
Collin 2 258,321 555,220 296,899 114.9
Fort Bend 3 507,177 296,374 140.6
Denton 4 210,980 494,396 283,416 134.3
Williamson 5 147,318/td> 379,221/td> 231,903/td> 157.4
Bexar 6 533,642 762,073 228,431 42.8
Dallas 7 728,017 935,446 207,429 28.5
Montgomery 8 152,679 346,465 193,786 126.9
Tarrant 9 541,243 701,618 160,375 29.6
Hays /th> 10 52,771 156,781 104,010 197.1

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Texas Demographic Center


Exhibit 7: Texas Counties with the Fastest Projected Under-18 Population Growth, 2020-2050

Rank County 2020 2050 Total Increase Percent Change
Andrews County 1 6,851 30,147 23,296 340.0%
Kendall County 2 10,300 31,684 21,384 207.6
Hays County 3 52,771 156,781 104,010 197.1
Hemphill County 4 1,478 4,070 2,592 175.4
Midland County 5 52,452 142,856 90,404 172.4
Comal County 6 32,639 87,854 55,215 169.2
Williamson County 7 147,318 379,221 231,903 157.4
Crane County 8 1,775 4,459 2,684 151.2
Fort Bend County 9 210,803 507,177 296,374 140.6
Denton County 10 210,980 494,396 283,416 134.3

Source: Texas Demographic Center


Race and Ethnicity

In the last decade, Texas and Florida both saw huge increases in their Hispanic child populations, and the Asian population rose substantially in Texas and California as well. But Texas is the only one of the six largest states to show an increase among all racial and ethnic groups within its under-18 population (Exhibit 8).

Exhibit 8: Change in Under-18 Population by Race/Ethnicity, Six Largest States, 2008-2018

State Asian Black Hispanic White
California 101,924 -53,295 -29,934 -213,515
Texas 108,831 89,071 351,906 43,154
Florida 27,878 48,141 247,163 -43,411
New York 42,226 -66,891 58,362 -240,416
Pennsylvania 23,015 -8,421 72,820 -206,846
Illinois 20,611 -76,857 -6,669 -184,977

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Texas is an ethnically diverse state, and current growth trends will make it more so. Through 2050, Texas will see its largest under-18 population increases among Hispanics (about 2 million children) and Asians (almost 1 million). The number of “Non-Hispanic Other” children — which, according to TDC, refers mainly to those who identify as two or more races — is expected to triple. Meanwhile, the population of white children in Texas is projected to show almost no growth through 2050 (Exhibit 9).

In the next 30 years, TDC expects Texas’ under-18 population to remain nearly 50 percent Hispanic, a considerably higher proportion than in the U.S. as a whole. Substantial increases in Asian and “Non-Hispanic Other” children will offset a proportional decline of almost 10 percent among white children by 2050.

The U.S. Census Bureau projects the nationwide share of Hispanic children to rise from 24.9 percent to 32.0 percent in 2060, while that of white children will fall from 51.1 percent to 36.5 percent.

Exhibit 9: Projected Texas Under-18 Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2020-2050

Year White Black Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic Other
2020 2,317,592 890,159 3,712,081 344,811 250,496
2021 2,322,156 902,468 3,754,305 357,525 258,486
2022 2,326,803 914,704 3,797,022 370,438 266,554
2023 2,332,313 927,124 3,839,288 384,468 274,571
2024 2,338,055 939,258 3,883,787 399,547 282,712
2025 2,342,894 951,012 3,927,101 415,753 290,953
2026 2,347,858 963,160 3,972,214 432,092 298,967
2027 2,354,642 976,761 4,024,036 451,032 307,369
2028 2,362,341 991,907 4,078,540 471,073 316,045
2029 2,368,275 1,007,417 4,143,353 490,732 326,447
2030 2,373,007 1,022,213 4,207,761 511,625 337,046
2031 2,376,694 1,036,425 4,271,697 533,741 347,877
2032 2,379,342 1,050,025 4,334,706 557,049 358,913
2033 2,381,039 1,063,208 4,396,970 581,746 370,097
2034 2,382,013 1,075,994 4,458,138 607,728 381,466
2035 2,382,256 1,088,529 4,518,182 634,998 392,985
2036 2,382,009 1,100,876 4,577,065 663,477 404,760
2037 2,381,421 1,113,126 4,634,564 693,283 416,728
2038 2,380,474 1,125,258 4,690,744 724,232 428,930
2039 2,379,471 1,137,416 4,745,553 756,298 441,392
2040 2,378,554 1,149,606 4,799,014 789,461 454,029
2041 2,377,763 1,161,957 4,851,211 823,670 466,936
2042 2,377,274 1,174,450 4,902,165 858,880 480,110
2043 2,377,236 1,187,218 4,952,205 895,048 493,480
2044 2,377,641 1,200,237 5,001,420 932,200 507,180
2045 2,378,622 1,213,489 5,049,974 970,288 521,109
2046 2,380,196 1,227,102 5,098,392 1,009,326 535,369
2047 2,382,421 1,241,094 5,147,102 1,049,348 549,904
2048 2,385,287 1,255,525 5,196,248 1,090,412 564,853
2049 2,388,703 1,270,398 5,246,376 1,132,617 580,186
2050 2,392,698 1,285,703 5,297,102 1,176,022 595,933

Source: Texas Demographic Center


Today’s Youth, Tomorrow’s Workforce

Today’s rapid growth in Texas’ number of young people will boost our working-aged population in the future. The number of Texans aged 25 to 54 — generally considered the prime working years — is increasing at a far greater pace than in the U.S. as a whole. From 2010 to 2033, this population is expected to rise by 35 percent in Texas, compared to 9.6 percent in the U.S. Texas’ share of the entire U.S. population for this age group is expected to rise from 8.3 percent to 10.2 percent in 2033. In other words, Texas’ share of all Americans of working age will increase significantly (Exhibit 10).

Exhibit 10: Percent Change in Prime Working-Aged Population (25-54), Texas vs U.S., 2010-2033

Year USA Texas
2010 0.0 0.0%
2011 0.0% .1%
2012 -0.1% 2.2%
2013 -0.1% 3.3%
2014 0.0% 4.8%
2015 0.3% 6.6%
2016 0.6% 8.2%
2017 0.9% 9.5%
2018 1.1% 10.8%
2019 1.4% 12.0%
2020 1.7% 13.3%
2021 2.1% 14.8%
2022 2.6% 16.3%
2023 3.2% 17.9%
2024 3.7% 19.4%
2025 4.1% 20.9%
2026 4.6% 22.4%
2027 5.1% 24.0%
2028 5.8% 25.9%
2029 6.6% 27.8%
2030 7.3% 29.6%
2031 8.2% 31.5%
2032 8.9% 33.4%
2033 9.6% 35.3%

Source: JobsEQ and U.S. Census Bureau


The wave of baby-boom retirements is likely to slow economic growth in the U.S. and throughout much of the world. By definition, retirees produce less in economic terms, and they tend to spend less as well.

That said, given the rapid expansion in Texas’ young population and the state’s continuing role as an immigration magnet, our workforce is likely to help offset this transition — assuming it has the education and skills it needs to succeed in a challenging environment.

In next month’s issue of Fiscal Notes, look for the second and final part of this series on young Texans. FN

For detailed information on the demographic makeup of the Texas population, visit the Texas Demographic Center.

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