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Texas Economic Forecast 2010-11

Texas Economic Detail
Calendar Years 1970-2040

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Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
Texas Exports (Billions of Dollars) $3.43 $3.57 $3.99 $5.52 $7.48 $8.20 $8.96 $9.55 $11.20 $13.76 $16.79 $18.22 $17.01 $16.67 $18.24 $18.23 $19.30 $22.01 $31.28 $34.45 $37.40 $42.52 $45.13 $47.21 $54.23 $62.22 $66.88 $76.16 $78.91 $83.10 $103.91 $95.11 $95.49 $98.94 $117.37 $129.23 $150.69 $167.99 $192.00 $162.84 $202.77 $221.73 $241.27 $266.16 $291.53 $316.00 $341.66 $369.95 $398.72 $428.46 $459.47 $489.13 $518.21 $549.44 $583.55 $619.09 $655.62 $693.23 $733.51 $776.40 $821.76 $869.76 $919.72 $972.76 $1,028.89 $1,087.14 $1,148.51 $1,213.62 $1,282.38 $1,354.94 $1,430.92
AGRICULTURE  
Total Agricultural Receipts (Millions of Dollars) $3,221 $3,459 $4,074 $6,489 $5,665 $5,910 $6,312 $6,663 $7,608 $10,098 $9,079 $9,613 $9,399 $9,176 $9,655 $9,262 $8,591 $9,132 $10,344 $10,919 $11,798 $12,113 $11,484 $12,770 $12,882 $13,085 $12,755 $13,201 $13,145 $13,018 $13,369 $13,792 $14,599 $14,961 $16,220 $16,582 $15,030 $19,834 $18,419 $16,723 $18,279 $18,985 $19,870 $20,793 $21,648 $22,415 $23,120 $23,846 $24,577 $25,342 $26,134 $26,841 $27,429 $28,050 $28,705 $29,358 $30,013 $30,670 $31,347 $32,045 $32,763 $33,496 $34,255 $35,031 $35,838 $36,638 $37,459 $38,311 $39,189 $40,093 $41,026
Cash Receipts from Crops (Millions of Dollars) $1,264 $1,178 $1,463 $2,811 $2,702 $2,833 $3,109 $3,141 $2,984 $3,970 $3,883 $4,165 $3,978 $3,655 $3,755 $3,815 $3,079 $3,042 $3,714 $4,055 $4,036 $4,309 $3,952 $4,547 $4,806 $4,647 $5,124 $5,060 $5,004 $4,552 $4,218 $5,207 $6,128 $6,405 $7,357 $7,607 $6,332 $9,878 $8,847 $7,953 $9,098 $9,702 $10,294 $10,935 $11,546 $12,139 $12,735 $13,327 $13,934 $14,584 $15,264 $15,845 $16,327 $16,839 $17,373 $17,921 $18,482 $19,043 $19,614 $20,203 $20,809 $21,429 $22,068 $22,727 $23,405 $24,101 $24,818 $25,557 $26,316 $27,102 $27,917
Cash Receipts from Livestock (Millions of Dollars) $1,956 $2,281 $2,610 $3,677 $2,963 $3,077 $3,203 $3,523 $4,624 $6,128 $5,196 $5,448 $5,421 $5,521 $5,900 $5,448 $5,513 $6,090 $6,630 $6,863 $7,762 $7,803 $7,532 $8,223 $8,076 $8,438 $7,631 $8,141 $8,141 $8,465 $9,151 $8,585 $8,470 $8,556 $8,863 $8,974 $8,698 $9,956 $9,573 $8,771 $9,181 $9,283 $9,576 $9,858 $10,103 $10,276 $10,385 $10,518 $10,643 $10,758 $10,869 $10,996 $11,101 $11,211 $11,331 $11,438 $11,531 $11,627 $11,733 $11,841 $11,955 $12,067 $12,187 $12,304 $12,433 $12,537 $12,642 $12,753 $12,873 $12,990 $13,110
ENERGY AND MINING  
Oil Production (Millions of Barrels) NA NA 1,255.4 1,252.9 1,216.8 1,174.0 1,145.8 1,093.1 1,021.2 970.9 921.0 889.7 863.7 841.1 837.0 823.6 775.2 719.0 693.5 646.0 639.7 642.3 612.4 576.5 542.1 513.8 494.2 479.7 448.3 394.3 387.1 370.5 350.4 338.8 328.6 326.3 327.7 316.1 322.9 319.6 316.5 307.0 297.7 288.8 280.2 271.7 263.6 255.7 248.0 240.6 233.4 226.4 219.6 213.0 206.6 200.4 194.4 188.5 182.9 177.4 172.1 166.9 161.9 157.1 152.3 147.8 143.3 139.0 134.9 130.8 126.9
Natural Gas Production (Millions of Mcf) NA NA NA NA NA NA 7,450.9 7,411.6 7,008.7 7,191.4 6,993.7 6,749.4 6,210.9 5,550.1 5,708.4 5,560.7 5,348.6 5,186.2 5,320.2 5,160.2 5,403.3 5,283.8 4,799.8 4,053.7 3,834.5 3,583.7 3,572.9 3,493.9 3,268.8 3,147.1 3,028.7 3,058.8 3,141.3 3,022.3 2,946.9 3,153.7 3,826.3 4,105.7 4,193.3 4,151.4 4,109.8 3,986.6 3,867.0 3,750.9 3,638.4 3,529.3 3,423.4 3,320.7 3,221.1 3,124.4 3,030.7 2,939.8 2,851.6 2,766.0 2,683.1 2,602.6 2,524.5 2,448.8 2,375.3 2,304.0 2,234.9 2,167.9 2,102.8 2,039.7 1,978.6 1,919.2 1,861.6 1,805.8 1,751.6 1,699.0 1,648.1
Average Taxable Oil Price (Dollars/Barrel) NA NA NA NA NA NA $8.18 $8.48 $9.27 $12.59 $22.16 $34.65 $31.67 $29.26 $28.82 $26.77 $14.73 $17.54 $14.71 $17.84 $22.35 $19.05 $18.40 $16.23 $15.08 $16.45 $20.41 $18.76 $12.36 $17.39 $28.72 $23.74 $24.36 $29.35 $38.95 $52.78 $61.52 $68.50 $96.44 $57.58 $74.43 $69.00 $68.09 $71.66 $76.64 $80.84 $84.90 $88.28 $90.91 $92.73 $94.49 $96.20 $97.96 $99.75 $101.68 $103.61 $105.58 $107.59 $109.70 $111.84 $114.03 $116.25 $118.50 $120.86 $123.26 $125.66 $128.13 $130.67 $133.28 $136.00 $138.76
Average Taxable Natural Gas Price (Dollars/Mcf) NA NA NA NA NA NA $0.69 $0.85 $0.92 $1.13 $1.42 $1.77 $2.05 $2.22 $2.24 $2.11 $1.49 $1.33 $1.42 $1.45 $1.48 $1.37 $1.54 $1.77 $1.59 $1.39 $1.96 $2.07 $1.79 $2.04 $3.66 $3.74 $2.89 $4.61 $5.41 $7.06 $6.15 $6.23 $7.68 $3.43 $4.20 $3.75 $4.09 $4.31 $4.67 $4.91 $5.08 $5.24 $5.41 $5.59 $5.77 $5.96 $6.15 $6.34 $6.55 $6.75 $6.97 $7.18 $7.41 $7.64 $7.87 $8.12 $8.36 $8.62 $8.88 $9.15 $9.42 $9.71 $10.00 $10.30 $10.61
Rig Count 303 291 326 377 508 637 653 779 855 770 990 1,320 991 792 855 673 302 295 282 267 348 315 250 263 274 251 283 357 303 226 341 462 339 449 506 613 745 833 898 430 625 647 688 719 736 757 774 784 792 797 799 796 796 794 796 796 796 796 796 795 795 795 795 795 794 794 794 793 792 791 792
CONSTRUCTION  
Total Housing Starts (Thousands) NA NA NA 159.6 85.3 99.6 142.1 203.6 209.3 174.4 142.5 148.6 197.6 284.4 209.6 147.9 104.7 59.6 44.8 44.1 52.2 58.0 73.2 87.2 109.5 112.1 121.2 131.6 158.0 148.6 144.1 147.5 161.8 176.9 181.0 201.0 206.6 168.8 127.8 81.8 81.4 91.5 102.6 113.4 127.8 138.6 147.4 150.1 149.5 150.4 149.8 146.8 145.3 142.1 139.9 140.9 140.9 138.7 135.4 133.0 132.6 131.9 130.3 129.9 130.8 131.4 131.6 130.8 129.3 128.4 127.7
Single-Family (Thousands) NA NA NA 111.3 52.9 75.9 94.5 119.4 121.3 94.6 87.6 84.2 92.3 116.4 104.2 82.0 66.9 51.4 40.9 40.6 44.0 48.4 63.6 75.8 80.5 80.2 91.4 89.3 110.1 108.0 112.3 118.8 126.3 139.1 147.5 167.2 167.5 124.5 82.7 68.0 68.1 73.8 83.6 93.5 102.5 105.7 107.2 106.7 106.2 106.4 105.7 103.6 103.1 102.5 102.4 104.2 104.6 102.8 99.9 98.4 99.1 98.8 96.6 96.1 97.1 98.1 99.1 99.0 98.6 98.7 99.2
Multi-Family (Thousands) NA NA NA 48.3 32.4 23.7 47.5 84.3 88.0 79.8 54.9 64.4 105.3 168.0 105.4 65.9 37.8 8.2 3.9 3.4 8.3 9.6 9.7 11.4 29.0 31.8 29.9 42.3 47.9 40.6 31.7 28.6 35.5 37.8 33.5 33.8 39.1 44.3 45.1 13.8 13.4 17.8 19.0 19.9 25.3 33.0 40.2 43.4 43.3 44.0 44.1 43.3 42.2 39.6 37.6 36.8 36.4 35.9 35.5 34.5 33.5 33.1 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.3 32.5 31.7 30.7 29.7 28.5
Nonresidential Area (Millions of Square Feet) 80.2 90.0 98.3 111.1 95.5 75.6 88.8 105.0 130.4 148.2 148.8 184.6 148.7 131.0 154.6 167.2 107.2 80.9 61.8 58.6 63.2 68.6 66.6 80.3 90.0 93.3 100.6 120.4 162.0 158.9 163.1 159.5 132.1 130.2 125.0 134.6 167.2 180.0 176.8 96.2 74.8 67.7 80.4 106.2 132.6 154.9 167.8 174.4 176.9 180.0 184.2 186.0 188.0 189.0 190.2 192.8 195.9 197.2 198.4 199.1 201.5 203.4 205.5 207.7 211.2 214.8 218.5 222.0 224.9 228.1 231.3
Nonbuilding Value (Millions of Dollars) $775 $912 $1,007 $1,026 $1,234 $1,554 $1,702 $1,711 $2,189 $3,683 $2,408 $3,998 $1,998 $3,507 $3,205 $3,875 $3,977 $4,360 $4,156 $3,221 $3,353 $3,261 $3,410 $3,944 $4,165 $5,024 $4,452 $4,731 $5,295 $9,392 $8,014 $10,052 $7,431 $8,252 $8,565 $9,781 $14,113 $11,362 $10,767 $11,144 $11,798 $10,357 $10,464 $11,695 $13,487 $15,039 $16,357 $17,296 $18,224 $19,187 $20,222 $21,223 $22,254 $23,297 $24,390 $25,514 $26,709 $27,921 $29,222 $30,533 $31,952 $33,393 $34,957 $36,577 $38,312 $40,113 $42,016 $44,040 $46,136 $48,337 $50,600
RETAIL SALES (TAXABLE)  
Total Automobile Sales (Thousands) 594.4 684.6 801.0 916.4 702.1 732.5 885.4 1,016.5 1,049.3 1,010.7 871.4 948.9 917.9 899.4 1,032.8 1,125.8 997.4 875.3 926.9 956.6 960.8 877.6 889.2 941.5 1,019.3 1,127.4 1,166.5 1,144.3 1,212.7 1,284.8 1,414.8 1,451.7 1,357.2 1,276.8 1,252.3 1,275.7 1,294.6 1,385.4 1,176.3 848.4 923.4 1,012.0 1,129.5 1,208.5 1,265.7 1,316.9 1,347.7 1,343.8 1,341.6 1,361.8 1,395.8 1,415.9 1,433.5 1,445.6 1,465.0 1,494.6 1,519.9 1,548.4 1,578.6 1,604.3 1,639.3 1,670.2 1,700.1 1,729.8 1,764.8 1,803.8 1,848.1 1,892.6 1,933.5 1,979.8 2,027.2
Cars (Thousands) 454.0 533.8 609.8 669.0 507.5 535.3 626.3 711.5 719.3 701.4 609.5 647.9 592.2 576.7 634.6 689.3 615.7 526.6 555.8 565.7 565.4 509.1 484.7 500.5 539.0 586.3 585.7 552.4 547.9 569.0 603.6 587.6 535.4 486.2 469.2 514.9 534.9 562.2 532.8 383.8 383.9 439.4 513.0 564.4 599.8 627.5 646.0 651.0 659.1 674.3 695.7 710.0 723.2 733.6 747.7 767.0 784.3 803.3 823.2 840.9 863.5 884.3 904.6 925.1 948.6 974.3 1,002.7 1,031.5 1,058.8 1,088.9 1,120.0
Trucks (Thousands) 140.3 150.8 191.2 247.4 194.6 197.2 259.1 304.9 330.0 309.3 261.9 301.0 325.7 322.6 398.2 436.5 381.8 348.7 371.2 391.0 395.3 368.5 404.5 441.0 480.3 541.2 580.8 591.9 664.9 715.8 811.2 864.1 821.8 790.7 783.1 760.8 759.8 823.2 643.5 464.7 539.6 572.7 616.4 644.1 665.8 689.4 701.7 692.8 682.4 687.5 700.1 705.8 710.3 712.0 717.3 727.6 735.7 745.1 755.4 763.3 775.8 785.9 795.5 804.7 816.2 829.5 845.3 861.1 874.7 890.9 907.2
Retail Sales, Excluding Automobiles (Taxable, Millions of Dollars) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $65,644 $68,322 $73,057 $77,622 $83,213 $87,746 $92,911 $97,857 $105,407 $112,625 $119,230 $123,384 $125,396 $128,021 $136,096 $147,136 $159,792 $169,960 $174,259 $167,327 $167,984 $174,534 $181,626 $189,455 $199,964 $212,102 $224,949 $238,186 $251,428 $265,073 $279,702 $294,271 $309,069 $324,153 $340,157 $357,542 $375,923 $395,223 $415,458 $436,600 $458,998 $482,649 $507,558 $533,813 $561,770 $591,592 $623,133 $656,286 $691,110 $727,697 $766,567

Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2010-11 Forecast