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Texas Economic Forecast 2010-11

Texas Economic Detail
Fiscal Years 1971-2040

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Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
Texas Exports (Billions of Dollars) $3.51 $3.79 $5.10 $7.09 $8.02 $8.78 $9.31 $10.71 $13.08 $16.16 $18.11 $17.23 $16.58 $17.99 $18.14 $18.89 $20.83 $29.42 $33.68 $36.48 $41.45 $44.53 $46.26 $52.39 $60.51 $65.32 $73.91 $79.35 $79.40 $100.15 $99.47 $93.57 $97.49 $112.69 $126.24 $144.04 $164.15 $192.14 $161.00 $195.90 $217.14 $236.02 $259.57 $285.20 $310.04 $334.88 $362.79 $391.52 $420.82 $451.69 $481.98 $510.78 $541.38 $574.76 $610.23 $646.32 $683.63 $723.24 $765.40 $810.14 $857.63 $906.97 $959.17 $1,014.65 $1,072.33 $1,132.85 $1,196.96 $1,264.85 $1,336.43 $1,411.66
AGRICULTURE  
Total Agricultural Receipts (Millions of Dollars) $3,366 $3,793 $6,148 $5,765 $5,834 $6,216 $6,531 $7,242 $9,784 $9,184 $9,549 $9,454 $9,166 $9,617 $9,391 $8,641 $8,939 $10,095 $10,750 $11,813 $11,790 $11,740 $12,162 $13,582 $11,859 $13,771 $12,960 $12,669 $13,681 $12,854 $13,850 $14,456 $14,783 $15,888 $16,334 $15,759 $18,341 $19,025 $17,074 $17,811 $18,825 $19,638 $20,570 $21,444 $22,232 $22,941 $23,664 $24,395 $25,145 $25,938 $26,686 $27,277 $27,892 $28,542 $29,193 $29,851 $30,504 $31,176 $31,867 $32,583 $33,312 $34,063 $34,834 $35,637 $36,435 $37,252 $38,094 $38,968 $39,864 $40,792
Cash Receipts from Crops (Millions of Dollars) $1,167 $1,323 $2,579 $2,707 $2,787 $3,062 $3,151 $2,927 $3,813 $3,871 $4,138 $4,038 $3,695 $3,734 $3,880 $3,191 $2,990 $3,573 $4,003 $4,079 $4,156 $4,081 $4,300 $5,014 $4,268 $5,350 $5,025 $4,826 $4,890 $4,160 $5,009 $5,921 $6,299 $7,109 $7,472 $6,804 $8,853 $9,229 $8,141 $8,717 $9,604 $10,136 $10,776 $11,396 $11,990 $12,585 $13,180 $13,779 $14,416 $15,093 $15,720 $16,204 $16,709 $17,239 $17,782 $18,341 $18,902 $19,470 $20,055 $20,656 $21,273 $21,907 $22,560 $23,234 $23,925 $24,636 $25,370 $26,125 $26,903 $27,711
Cash Receipts from Livestock (Millions of Dollars) $2,199 $2,471 $3,570 $3,058 $3,047 $3,154 $3,380 $4,316 $5,970 $5,313 $5,411 $5,416 $5,471 $5,884 $5,511 $5,451 $5,949 $6,522 $6,747 $7,734 $7,634 $7,659 $7,862 $8,568 $7,591 $8,421 $7,935 $7,842 $8,791 $8,694 $8,841 $8,535 $8,485 $8,778 $8,862 $8,955 $9,487 $9,796 $8,933 $9,094 $9,221 $9,502 $9,794 $10,047 $10,242 $10,355 $10,483 $10,615 $10,729 $10,844 $10,966 $11,074 $11,183 $11,304 $11,411 $11,509 $11,601 $11,706 $11,812 $11,927 $12,040 $12,157 $12,274 $12,403 $12,510 $12,616 $12,723 $12,843 $12,961 $13,081
ENERGY AND MINING  
Oil Production (Millions of Barrels) NA NA 1,257.4 1,228.9 1,182.5 1,156.4 1,105.4 1,037.0 986.6 931.5 897.0 869.9 845.0 838.9 830.4 788.1 730.0 702.0 653.8 640.4 644.8 620.5 585.3 550.1 520.1 498.8 482.3 462.7 400.4 393.4 372.2 355.5 340.6 331.5 326.8 326.7 319.6 321.2 320.4 317.2 309.3 300.0 291.0 282.3 273.8 265.6 257.6 249.9 242.4 235.1 228.1 221.2 214.6 208.2 201.9 195.9 190.0 184.3 178.8 173.4 168.2 163.2 158.3 153.5 148.9 144.4 140.1 135.9 131.8 127.9
Natural Gas Production (Millions of Mcf) NA NA NA NA NA NA 7,493.6 7,097.7 7,066.3 7,105.7 6,803.8 6,409.7 5,594.4 5,717.1 5,544.7 5,499.2 5,122.6 5,348.0 5,163.9 5,324.7 5,452.9 4,904.6 4,193.6 3,862.9 3,656.0 3,550.3 3,522.4 3,333.5 3,148.8 3,070.7 2,992.0 3,196.4 3,024.3 2,968.3 3,032.9 3,637.4 4,105.7 4,170.9 4,162.1 4,120.5 4,018.1 3,897.5 3,780.6 3,667.2 3,557.2 3,450.5 3,346.9 3,246.5 3,149.1 3,054.7 2,963.0 2,874.1 2,787.9 2,704.3 2,623.1 2,544.5 2,468.1 2,394.1 2,322.3 2,252.6 2,185.0 2,119.5 2,055.9 1,994.2 1,934.4 1,876.3 1,820.1 1,765.5 1,712.5 1,661.1
Average Taxable Oil Price (Dollars/Barrel) NA $3.48 $3.58 $6.03 $7.39 $7.95 $8.32 $8.93 $10.31 $17.93 $30.89 $32.73 $30.28 $29.04 $27.44 $20.55 $15.50 $16.60 $15.89 $17.76 $23.01 $18.61 $17.95 $14.68 $16.22 $17.86 $20.59 $15.12 $12.91 $25.16 $27.73 $21.91 $28.59 $32.50 $46.92 $61.19 $59.13 $98.86 $60.03 $72.75 $70.73 $67.97 $70.04 $73.62 $78.97 $83.10 $86.78 $89.74 $91.92 $93.71 $95.44 $97.18 $98.95 $100.82 $102.76 $104.71 $106.70 $108.76 $110.89 $113.06 $115.26 $117.50 $119.82 $122.20 $124.60 $127.03 $129.54 $132.12 $134.80 $137.54
Average Taxable Natural Gas Price (Dollars/Mcf) NA NA NA NA NA NA $0.79 $0.89 $1.00 $1.27 $1.58 $1.91 $2.14 $2.25 $2.21 $1.82 $1.36 $1.37 $1.45 $1.45 $1.43 $1.36 $1.74 $1.76 $1.42 $1.60 $2.07 $2.00 $1.71 $2.59 $4.82 $2.47 $4.09 $4.73 $5.74 $7.36 $6.11 $7.35 $4.98 $4.10 $3.82 $3.93 $4.20 $4.49 $4.79 $5.00 $5.16 $5.33 $5.50 $5.68 $5.87 $6.06 $6.25 $6.45 $6.65 $6.86 $7.08 $7.30 $7.53 $7.76 $8.00 $8.24 $8.49 $8.75 $9.02 $9.29 $9.57 $9.85 $10.15 $10.45
Rig Count 296 319 358 470 609 645 753 847 767 947 1,239 1,125 783 860 739 375 282 296 257 331 340 246 264 275 257 271 338 338 213 312 459 353 419 491 581 716 815 897 539 569 643 675 712 732 754 771 782 791 796 799 796 796 794 796 796 796 796 796 795 795 795 795 795 794 794 794 793 792 792 791
CONSTRUCTION  
Total Housing Starts (Thousands) NA NA NA 91.2 87.9 136.8 192.9 222.4 185.9 147.3 155.1 171.3 275.9 240.3 150.4 123.3 63.9 45.2 45.2 51.2 53.0 70.8 82.5 105.3 109.9 121.6 126.1 152.1 154.5 143.3 147.8 158.8 169.2 183.4 190.6 214.3 176.0 142.5 86.6 81.5 88.4 100.2 110.4 124.1 135.9 145.9 149.9 149.6 150.1 150.3 147.5 145.8 143.1 140.1 140.6 141.2 139.4 136.3 133.4 132.5 132.2 130.7 129.7 130.5 131.3 131.6 131.1 129.6 128.6 127.7
Single-Family (Thousands) NA NA NA 52.7 67.1 95.9 118.3 131.9 105.1 86.8 91.3 82.3 115.8 110.2 85.0 73.3 53.0 40.7 41.7 43.5 45.5 59.9 72.3 81.8 77.0 92.6 87.3 104.2 109.9 110.9 119.3 122.7 134.0 148.0 158.4 176.2 134.9 93.5 64.8 70.1 71.5 81.2 91.0 100.8 104.9 107.2 106.8 106.3 106.3 106.2 104.1 103.0 102.8 102.2 103.7 104.7 103.4 100.7 98.5 98.8 99.1 97.1 96.0 96.8 97.8 98.9 99.2 98.7 98.7 99.0
Multi-Family (Thousands) NA NA NA 38.5 20.8 41.0 74.6 90.5 80.8 60.5 63.7 89.0 160.1 130.2 65.4 50.0 11.0 4.5 3.5 7.7 7.5 10.8 10.2 23.5 32.9 29.0 38.8 47.9 44.5 32.5 28.6 36.0 35.2 35.5 32.2 38.1 41.1 49.0 21.8 11.4 16.9 19.0 19.4 23.3 31.0 38.7 43.1 43.3 43.8 44.1 43.4 42.8 40.3 37.9 36.9 36.5 36.0 35.6 34.9 33.7 33.2 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.5 32.7 32.0 30.9 29.9 28.8
Nonresidential Area (Millions of Square Feet) NA NA NA NA NA 88.8 97.2 122.5 151.3 140.1 174.6 167.6 133.7 141.2 172.0 121.5 89.0 64.4 60.6 53.2 75.3 66.0 74.1 89.0 92.5 98.8 114.9 149.9 161.8 160.0 168.0 137.3 130.2 122.5 129.7 156.4 185.2 181.9 112.4 78.6 68.3 75.4 99.3 125.9 150.4 165.2 173.3 176.4 179.0 183.1 186.0 187.4 188.9 189.8 192.1 195.2 196.9 198.1 199.0 200.7 203.0 205.1 207.0 210.2 214.0 217.5 221.2 224.2 227.3 230.5
Nonbuilding Value (Millions of Dollars) $673.0 $1,123.6 $1,070.4 $1,158.1 $1,652.1 $1,164.5 $2,108.0 $1,790.9 $3,159.7 $2,885.6 $4,156.8 $2,040.3 $3,296.8 $2,776.7 $4,044.0 $4,041.4 $4,262.4 $4,193.0 $3,501.2 $3,393.8 $3,264.5 $3,102.5 $3,914.2 $4,281.5 $4,680.9 $4,778.4 $4,481.8 $5,167.8 $8,365.8 $7,803.4 $10,131.5 $8,649.8 $7,228.7 $8,934.2 $9,332.2 $11,849.5 $13,635.1 $10,945.6 $10,009.2 $12,389.6 $10,577.0 $10,272.4 $11,350.4 $13,029.8 $14,680.4 $16,040.9 $17,070.8 $17,994.1 $18,939.7 $19,948.6 $20,984.7 $21,991.1 $23,032.3 $24,114.1 $25,231.7 $26,403.6 $27,609.9 $28,889.5 $30,208.7 $31,585.1 $33,024.8 $34,562.9 $36,164.8 $37,863.8 $39,662.2 $41,524.1 $43,527.6 $45,601.8 $47,785.1 $50,029.5
RETAIL SALES (TAXABLE)  
Total Automobile Sales (Thousands) 619.9 737.5 948.9 767.4 678.4 858.2 1,001.2 1,051.1 1,012.4 908.6 937.4 907.8 890.6 1,021.0 1,108.8 1,042.3 875.3 915.9 961.0 945.8 887.3 921.6 903.7 1,029.9 1,039.3 1,215.5 1,118.4 1,189.1 1,284.0 1,406.0 1,372.0 1,430.6 1,302.7 1,247.3 1,285.3 1,283.0 1,362.2 1,271.2 878.9 901.3 984.1 1,104.5 1,192.0 1,251.8 1,304.6 1,345.3 1,342.0 1,342.7 1,354.3 1,388.5 1,411.7 1,429.6 1,442.5 1,458.7 1,487.3 1,513.5 1,540.9 1,571.6 1,597.7 1,629.8 1,662.9 1,693.0 1,721.7 1,755.7 1,793.5 1,836.4 1,882.4 1,923.0 1,968.0 2,015.0
Cars (Thousands) 483.3 561.4 705.1 552.1 496.5 611.9 703.7 720.5 704.5 633.3 647.0 588.9 576.7 635.7 674.1 639.4 533.3 548.7 571.6 554.4 520.3 512.0 481.3 543.5 538.9 623.0 545.2 546.0 571.0 604.6 561.8 563.4 504.9 467.1 503.9 538.9 548.3 566.6 393.2 378.9 425.7 496.2 553.6 591.6 620.2 643.8 648.2 657.3 669.3 691.0 706.8 720.2 731.0 743.4 762.2 779.9 798.3 818.5 836.4 857.5 879.3 899.7 919.6 942.5 967.6 995.3 1,024.8 1,051.8 1,081.3 1,112.0
Trucks (Thousands) 136.6 176.0 243.8 215.2 181.8 246.3 297.5 330.6 307.8 275.3 290.4 318.9 313.9 385.3 434.7 402.8 342.0 367.2 389.4 391.4 367.0 409.6 422.4 486.4 500.4 592.5 573.3 643.1 713.0 801.5 810.2 867.2 797.7 780.2 781.4 744.0 813.9 704.6 485.7 522.4 558.4 608.3 638.4 660.2 684.4 701.5 693.8 685.3 685.0 697.5 704.8 709.4 711.5 715.3 725.1 733.6 742.6 753.1 761.3 772.3 783.6 793.2 802.1 813.2 826.0 841.1 857.7 871.2 886.7 902.9
Retail Sales, Excluding Automobiles (Taxable, Millions of Dollars) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 67,619 71,501 76,428 81,805 86,699 91,686 96,271 103,768 110,581 118,019 122,343 125,253 126,582 134,297 143,346 157,188 168,013 173,765 169,958 166,264 172,777 179,812 187,325 197,070 209,033 221,634 234,892 248,113 261,574 275,979 290,664 305,342 320,329 336,032 353,071 371,257 390,310 410,311 431,224 453,260 476,634 501,210 527,099 554,610 583,964 615,098 647,843 682,245 718,375 756,592

Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2010-11 Forecast