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Economic Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2016-17
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991—2046
| Year | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 597.8 | 621.1 | 651.6 | 682.5 | 710.0 | 745.2 | 799.8 | 855.8 | 892.2 | 926.4 | 948.8 | 967.2 | 967.8 | 1,017.2 | 1,039.1 | 1,091.9 | 1,156.3 | 1,171.5 | 1,169.5 | 1,188.8 | 1,225.3 | 1,292.4 | 1,360.0 | 1,419.5 | 1,503.7 | 1,505.9 | 1,543.6 | 1,589.9 | 1,639.1 | 1,691.7 | 1,745.6 | 1,801.5 | 1,861.3 | 1,919.0 | 1,974.9 | 2,032.0 | 2,094.1 | 2,161.8 | 2,229.5 | 2,299.1 | 2,371.2 | 2,444.3 | 2,517.9 | 2,598.4 | 2,679.1 | 2,760.6 | 2,844.5 | 2,931.5 | 3,021.5 | 3,115.8 | 3,213.8 | 3,315.1 | 3,418.5 | 3,523.8 | 3,631.8 | 3,742.1 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 1.3 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 400.5 | 421.9 | 452.0 | 481.6 | 511.9 | 550.0 | 601.7 | 640.7 | 672.1 | 728.5 | 771.0 | 784.7 | 817.5 | 891.5 | 965.6 | 1,067.1 | 1,154.7 | 1,242.3 | 1,174.5 | 1,221.7 | 1,317.5 | 1,414.5 | 1,510.0 | 1,608.6 | 1,637.6 | 1,623.0 | 1,696.0 | 1,779.3 | 1,869.4 | 1,962.8 | 2,060.5 | 2,163.3 | 2,273.7 | 2,389.7 | 2,511.6 | 2,636.9 | 2,768.2 | 2,907.9 | 3,052.1 | 3,203.7 | 3,363.8 | 3,531.1 | 3,704.7 | 3,891.6 | 4,084.6 | 4,286.4 | 4,495.6 | 4,714.4 | 4,942.9 | 5,187.5 | 5,449.2 | 5,726.8 | 6,017.0 | 6,322.4 | 6,643.2 | 6,978.2 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 5.4 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 7.6 | -5.5 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 305.9 | 329.0 | 350.2 | 368.7 | 395.5 | 423.6 | 460.0 | 503.0 | 532.5 | 578.3 | 619.9 | 630.5 | 649.8 | 675.0 | 729.1 | 802.8 | 856.9 | 947.3 | 921.1 | 938.6 | 1,026.4 | 1,101.6 | 1,147.5 | 1,210.6 | 1,280.3 | 1,312.3 | 1,370.8 | 1,439.3 | 1,511.2 | 1,585.7 | 1,665.1 | 1,748.4 | 1,834.3 | 1,926.5 | 2,022.9 | 2,122.3 | 2,224.3 | 2,336.6 | 2,452.4 | 2,575.6 | 2,705.2 | 2,840.7 | 2,981.3 | 3,131.5 | 3,292.0 | 3,460.8 | 3,636.1 | 3,816.6 | 4,005.0 | 4,203.7 | 4,412.8 | 4,634.0 | 4,866.9 | 5,111.7 | 5,366.9 | 5,633.4 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 10.6 | -2.8 | 1.9 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,167.1 | 7,238.5 | 7,428.4 | 7,675.7 | 7,969.6 | 8,193.8 | 8,521.1 | 8,863.0 | 9,107.7 | 9,363.6 | 9,528.9 | 9,423.8 | 9,373.2 | 9,446.4 | 9,664.7 | 9,982.2 | 10,311.3 | 10,582.2 | 10,402.4 | 10,285.0 | 10,509.5 | 10,787.4 | 11,127.5 | 11,458.8 | 11,791.1 | 11,975.4 | 12,175.3 | 12,402.4 | 12,616.7 | 12,826.4 | 13,014.9 | 13,237.0 | 13,479.0 | 13,711.8 | 13,925.0 | 14,118.5 | 14,311.6 | 14,503.9 | 14,695.2 | 14,888.6 | 15,071.9 | 15,261.0 | 15,438.4 | 15,628.8 | 15,824.5 | 16,023.1 | 16,214.1 | 16,401.7 | 16,592.0 | 16,795.3 | 16,986.2 | 17,185.4 | 17,393.4 | 17,610.1 | 17,835.1 | 18,065.1 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -1.7 | -1.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,356.6 | 17,717.0 | 18,111.4 | 18,513.3 | 18,908.6 | 19,293.8 | 19,691.4 | 20,104.3 | 20,507.5 | 20,896.8 | 21,272.5 | 21,642.1 | 21,989.8 | 22,349.9 | 22,744.9 | 23,327.6 | 23,773.2 | 24,250.4 | 24,738.1 | 25,192.2 | 25,604.8 | 26,033.8 | 26,453.5 | 26,920.0 | 27,407.5 | 27,888.1 | 28,361.2 | 28,836.9 | 29,312.9 | 29,786.1 | 30,255.4 | 30,723.4 | 31,191.1 | 31,658.0 | 32,124.0 | 32,588.8 | 33,053.2 | 33,517.4 | 33,980.4 | 34,441.4 | 34,900.6 | 35,358.4 | 35,814.8 | 36,270.5 | 36,726.2 | 37,182.2 | 37,639.1 | 38,097.0 | 38,556.6 | 39,017.3 | 39,479.2 | 39,942.5 | 40,407.7 | 40,874.9 | 41,344.2 | 41,815.7 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.7 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $25.42 | $20.91 | $20.13 | $16.86 | $18.27 | $19.60 | $22.27 | $17.13 | $14.95 | $26.70 | $29.76 | $23.74 | $30.11 | $34.56 | $50.31 | $65.63 | $63.45 | $101.93 | $64.09 | $76.32 | $91.25 | $94.28 | $93.65 | $101.05 | $64.94 | $41.40 | $47.73 | $55.11 | $59.26 | $61.63 | $62.99 | $64.31 | $66.11 | $68.62 | $72.14 | $76.97 | $81.56 | $84.93 | $87.35 | $89.07 | $90.29 | $91.14 | $91.73 | $92.15 | $92.44 | $92.64 | $92.78 | $92.88 | $92.95 | $92.99 | $93.03 | $93.05 | $93.06 | $93.08 | $93.08 | $93.09 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | $1.66 | $2.11 | $2.43 | $2.47 | $2.05 | $2.86 | $5.41 | $2.84 | $4.80 | $5.55 | $6.57 | $9.28 | $7.06 | $8.47 | $5.91 | $4.43 | $4.20 | $3.10 | $3.48 | $4.18 | $3.34 | $2.30 | $3.15 | $3.05 | $2.92 | $2.99 | $3.09 | $3.22 | $3.50 | $3.68 | $3.91 | $4.03 | $4.07 | $4.08 | $4.09 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.11 | $4.12 | $4.13 | $4.14 | $4.14 | $4.15 | $4.16 | $4.17 | $4.18 | $4.19 | $4.19 | $4.20 | $4.21 | $4.22 | $4.23 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross U.S. Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars ) | 8,921.2 | 9,169.0 | 9,459.3 | 9,805.7 | 10,117.6 | 10,446.5 | 10,917.1 | 11,385.8 | 11,927.8 | 12,470.7 | 12,675.8 | 12,844.1 | 13,129.9 | 13,668.1 | 14,128.5 | 14,527.9 | 14,805.0 | 14,934.1 | 14,427.5 | 14,684.5 | 14,957.8 | 15,306.1 | 15,509.8 | 15,884.1 | 16,321.2 | 16,577.8 | 16,937.4 | 17,365.4 | 17,792.2 | 18,151.5 | 18,544.2 | 18,956.1 | 19,372.4 | 19,782.9 | 20,183.1 | 20,560.0 | 20,951.1 | 21,380.6 | 21,804.5 | 22,237.5 | 22,683.4 | 23,130.9 | 23,579.5 | 24,061.1 | 24,547.2 | 25,040.8 | 25,534.1 | 26,045.2 | 26,564.2 | 27,094.4 | 27,645.8 | 28,195.7 | 28,760.7 | 29,335.4 | 29,913.3 | 30,487.9 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -3.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 135.2 | 139.2 | 143.5 | 147.3 | 151.4 | 155.6 | 159.8 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 170.7 | 176.2 | 178.9 | 183.1 | 187.3 | 193.5 | 200.6 | 205.3 | 214.4 | 213.8 | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.2 | 236.0 | 236.8 | 238.9 | 244.8 | 250.6 | 256.7 | 263.4 | 270.4 | 277.5 | 284.7 | 291.8 | 299.1 | 306.4 | 314.0 | 321.5 | 329.1 | 336.9 | 345.1 | 353.4 | 361.9 | 370.7 | 379.6 | 388.8 | 398.2 | 407.8 | 417.7 | 427.9 | 438.3 | 449.1 | 460.1 | 471.3 | 482.9 | 494.7 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.4 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | |
| PCE Index (2009=100) | 69.2 | 71.0 | 72.9 | 74.4 | 76.0 | 77.5 | 79.1 | 79.8 | 80.7 | 82.6 | 84.5 | 85.5 | 87.2 | 89.1 | 91.6 | 94.3 | 96.3 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 101.3 | 103.5 | 105.7 | 107.2 | 108.8 | 109.4 | 110.3 | 112.2 | 114.2 | 116.6 | 119.0 | 121.5 | 124.0 | 126.7 | 129.4 | 132.1 | 134.8 | 137.7 | 140.5 | 143.4 | 146.3 | 149.4 | 152.5 | 155.7 | 158.9 | 162.3 | 165.7 | 169.2 | 172.7 | 176.4 | 180.1 | 183.9 | 187.8 | 191.8 | 195.8 | 200.0 | 204.3 |
| Annual % Change | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 9.1 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.