Certification Revenue Estimate 2012-13

Table 4 – Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2004-13

TEXAS ECONOMY
	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011*	2012*	2013*
Gross State Product (Billions, 2005 $)	$953.2	$975.2	$1,002.0	$1,056.6	$1,082.6	$1,063.0	$1,102.8	$1,127.1	$1,150.0	$1,178.1
Annual percent change	3.9%	2.3%	2.8%	5.4%	2.5%	-1.8%	3.7%	2.2%	2.0%	2.4%
Personal Income (Billions, Current $)	$683.7	$740.7	$808.4	$867.3	$952.7	$960.8	$979.7	$1,035.8	$1,080.3	$1,120.1
Annual percent change	6.1%	8.3%	9.1%	7.3%	9.8%	0.8%	2.0%	5.7%	4.3%	3.7%
Nonfarm Employment (Thousands)	9,450	9,667	9,985	10,313	10,584	10,404	10,291	10,520	10,671	10,834
Annual percent change	0.8%	2.3%	3.3%	3.3%	2.6%	-1.7%	-1.1%	2.2%	1.4%	1.5%
Resident Population (Thousands)	22,377	22,771	23,343	23,783	24,252	24,729	25,204	25,673	26,142	26,599
Annual percent change	1.6%	1.8%	2.5%	1.9%	2.0%	2.0%	1.9%	1.9%	1.8%	1.7%
Unemployment Rate (%)	6.3%	5.5%	5.1%	4.5%	4.7%	6.9%	8.2%	8.2%	8.3%	8.1%
Oil Price ($per Barrel)	$32.50	$46.92	$61.19	$59.13	$98.86	$60.03	$72.75	$87.85	$78.65	$78.67
Natural Gas Price ($per McF)	$4.79	$5.80	$7.55	$6.18	$7.50	$5.13	$3.96	$4.13	$3.98	$3.93

U.S. ECONOMY
	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011*	2012*	2013*
Gross Domestic Product (Billions, 2005 $)	$12,159.8	$12,535.9	$12,882.8	$13,134.5	$13,272.6	$12,720.6	$12,987.3	$13,255.8	$13,473.8	$13,753.0
Annual percent change	3.7%	3.1%	2.8%	2.0%	1.1%	-4.2%	2.1%	2.1%	1.6%	2.1%
Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100)	187.3	193.5	200.6	205.3	214.4	213.8	217.4	223.0	227.2	231.3
Annual percent change	2.3%	3.3%	3.7%	2.3%	4.4%	-0.3%	1.7%	2.6%	1.9%	1.8%
Prime Interest Rate (%)	4.1%	5.7%	7.6%	8.2%	6.0%	3.5%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%

*Estimated or Projected
SOURCES: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.