Certification Revenue Estimate 2014-15

Table 4 – Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2006-15

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013*	2014*	2015*
TEXAS ECONOMY
Gross State Product (Billion 2005 $)	1,002	1,059	1,082	1,067	1,105	1,145	1,198	1,248	1,294	1,339
Annual percent change	3.6	5.7	2.2	(1.4)	3.6	3.7	4.7	4.1	3.7	3.4
Gross State Product (Billion $)	1,033	1,123	1,208	1,150	1,197	1,300	1,382	1,466	1,544	1,623
Annual percent change	8.6	8.7	7.5	(4.7)	4.0	8.7	6.3	6.1	5.3	5.1
Personal Income (Billion $)	808	867	953	920	945	1,018	1,065	1,117	1,161	1,210
Annual percent change	9.1	7.3	9.8	(3.4)	2.7	7.8	4.6	4.9	4.0	4.2
Nonfarm Employment (Thousands)	9,981	10,309	10,580	10,401	10,288	10,516	10,793	11,109	11,349	11,589
Annual percent change	3.3	3.3	2.6	(1.7)	(1.1)	2.2	2.6	2.9	2.2	2.1
Resident Population (Thousands)	23,327	23,772	24,250	24,737	25,190	25,585	26,006	26,442	26,887	27,338
Annual percent change	2.6	1.9	2.0	2.0	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.7
Unemployment Rate (Percent)	5.1	4.4	4.6	6.9	8.2	8.1	7.1	6.5	6.1	6.0
Taxable Oil Price ($per Barrel)	61.19	59.13	98.95	60.66	72.75	87.91	91.99	93.20	93.98	86.71
Taxable Natural Gas Price ($per Mcf)	7.54	6.17	7.47	5.11	3.91	4.07	3.77	3.39	3.30	3.42

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013*	2014*	2015*
U.S. ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product (Billion, 2009 $)	14,529	14,807	14,939	14,427	14,679	14,977	15,396	15,639	16,002	16,515
Annual percent change	2.8	1.9	0.9	(3.4)	1.7	2.0	2.8	1.6	2.3	3.2
Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100)	200	205	214	214	217	222	228	232	236	239
Annual percent change	3.9	2.3	4.3	0.2	1.5	2.4	2.6	1.7	1.7	1.3
U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note Yield (percent)	4.8	4.7	3.9	3.2	3.4	3.0	1.9	2.1	2.8	3.1

*Estimated or projected
SOURCES: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts; and IHS Global, Inc.