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Forecast Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2017-18
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2046
| Year | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042; | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 595 | 603.4 | 628.8 | 659.4 | 691.5 | 715.4 | 756 | 816.6 | 867 | 901 | 930.6 | 954.8 | 968.7 | 976.6 | 1,023.20 | 1,047.00 | 1,111.80 | 1,166.70 | 1,173.70 | 1,166.50 | 1,197.00 | 1,240.10 | 1,310.50 | 1,377.10 | 1,427.90 | 1,492.80 | 1,498.90 | 1,551.80 | 1,605.90 | 1,656.70 | 1,706.50 | 1,758.10 | 1,811.50 | 1,867.50 | 1,921.70 | 1,968.30 | 2,018.40 | 2,072.70 | 2,131.90 | 2,194.80 | 2,258.50 | 2,323.60 | 2,389.50 | 2,454.70 | 2,524.50 | 2,593.20 | 2,663.60 | 2,736.50 | 2,811.10 | 2,890.30 | 2,971.70 | 3,054.10 | 3,137.20 | 3,221.20 | 3,308.60 | 3,398.90 | 3,491.10 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 8 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 390.4 | 404.6 | 429.4 | 459.4 | 490 | 519.1 | 561.9 | 614.4 | 648.2 | 683.6 | 741.1 | 776.5 | 788.9 | 833.5 | 909.6 | 990.1 | 1,088.30 | 1,179.20 | 1,243.40 | 1,166.50 | 1,243.40 | 1,344.70 | 1,437.90 | 1,536.50 | 1,614.10 | 1,611.20 | 1,616.80 | 1,728.50 | 1,835.50 | 1,939.90 | 2,042.60 | 2,152.50 | 2,269.00 | 2,390.30 | 2,515.20 | 2,637.60 | 2,764.30 | 2,898.40 | 3,045.70 | 3,201.30 | 3,362.70 | 3,531.40 | 3,707.00 | 3,888.90 | 4,084.20 | 4,284.70 | 4,496.10 | 4,714.40 | 4,941.00 | 5,180.70 | 5,432.30 | 5,697.30 | 5,973.40 | 6,260.40 | 6,564.60 | 6,883.50 | 7,215.30 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 3.6 | 6.1 | 7 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 5.4 | -6.2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 5.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 296.2 | 310 | 335.3 | 354.8 | 375.1 | 401.5 | 431.7 | 470.3 | 512.7 | 540.8 | 589.5 | 626.7 | 633.4 | 656.3 | 684.2 | 747 | 817.8 | 873 | 961 | 910.1 | 956.6 | 1,047.00 | 1,125.70 | 1,148.90 | 1,234.40 | 1,289.60 | 1,327.20 | 1,380.10 | 1,462.60 | 1,549.90 | 1,640.00 | 1,732.90 | 1,829.20 | 1,927.90 | 2,030.80 | 2,137.30 | 2,248.10 | 2,362.20 | 2,484.70 | 2,615.90 | 2,752.50 | 2,895.30 | 3,043.80 | 3,199.40 | 3,366.70 | 3,543.40 | 3,728.30 | 3,920.40 | 4,118.30 | 4,324.90 | 4,543.10 | 4,768.00 | 5,002.80 | 5,249.70 | 5,508.50 | 5,780.40 | 6,062.50 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 4.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7 | 7.5 | 9 | 9 | 5.5 | 9 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 10.1 | -5.3 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,125.40 | 7,205.20 | 7,300.90 | 7,514.70 | 7,785.50 | 8,058.50 | 8,292.10 | 8,643.70 | 8,973.40 | 9,189.10 | 9,461.40 | 9,544.50 | 9,447.10 | 9,401.70 | 9,527.10 | 9,771.00 | 10,097.30 | 10,427.80 | 10,642.50 | 10,341.10 | 10,374.00 | 10,603.30 | 10,914.00 | 11,240.70 | 11,593.80 | 11,869.40 | 12,028.40 | 12,297.80 | 12,540.50 | 12,781.40 | 13,005.90 | 13,203.50 | 13,409.90 | 13,609.20 | 13,792.00 | 13,956.70 | 14,112.70 | 14,274.00 | 14,449.80 | 14,629.70 | 14,816.60 | 14,986.90 | 15,159.00 | 15,326.90 | 15,504.70 | 15,680.10 | 15,859.10 | 16,034.70 | 16,213.00 | 16,396.40 | 16,598.00 | 16,781.00 | 16,963.10 | 17,143.40 | 17,330.30 | 17,523.50 | 17,720.10 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3 | 0.9 | -1 | ``-0.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | -2.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,105.10 | 17,444.50 | 17,812.50 | 18,212.00 | 18,612.90 | 19,005.60 | 19,391.50 | 19,793.50 | 20,206.60 | 20,606.40 | 20,991.50 | 21,365.70 | 21,731.00 | 22,077.70 | 22,443.30 | 22,898.10 | 23,426.80 | 23,891.90 | 24,371.60 | 24,857.10 | 25,295.10 | 25,701.00 | 26,120.40 | 26,536.80 | 27,006.20 | 27,480.50 | 27,916.70 | 28,349.70 | 28,784.00 | 29,220.30 | 29,659.40 | 30,099.80 | 30,541.30 | 30,983.10 | 31,424.50 | 31,864.70 | 32,303.20 | 32,739.60 | 33,173.70 | 33,605.60 | 34,035.30 | 34,462.20 | 34,886.20 | 35,307.30 | 35,726.00 | 36,142.80 | 36,558.00 | 36,971.50 | 37,383.30 | 37,793.40 | 38,201.60 | 38,608.00 | 39,012.80 | 39,416.00 | 39,817.80 | 40,218.10 | 40,616.80 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4 | 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $24.50 | $21.46 | $20.57 | $18.48 | $17.18 | $18.40 | $22.01 | $20.61 | $14.43 | $19.24 | $30.20 | $25.90 | $26.08 | $31.04 | $41.40 | $56.56 | $66.22 | $72.31 | $99.65 | $61.80 | $79.53 | $95.12 | $94.21 | $97.97 | $93.00 | $48.79 | $42.40 | $48.92 | $50.16 | $53.17 | $55.02 | $56.24 | $57.42 | $59.03 | $61.26 | $64.41 | $68.72 | $72.82 | $75.83 | $77.99 | $79.52 | $80.61 | $81.37 | $81.90 | $82.27 | $82.53 | $82.71 | $82.84 | $82.92 | $82.98 | $83.02 | $83.05 | $83.07 | $83.09 | $83.10 | $83.10 | $83.11 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | NA | NA | NA | NA | $1.95 | $1.69 | $2.51 | $2.47 | $2.16 | $2.31 | $4.31 | $4.03 | $3.36 | $5.50 | $6.19 | $9.00 | $6.99 | $7.12 | $8.90 | $4.16 | $4.40 | $4.03 | $2.82 | $3.73 | $4.28 | $2.63 | $2.55 | $3.25 | $2.97 | $2.84 | $2.80 | $2.83 | $2.92 | $2.99 | $3.08 | $3.20 | $3.23 | $3.24 | $3.24 | $3.25 | $3.26 | $3.26 | $3.27 | $3.28 | $3.28 | $3.29 | $3.30 | $3.30 | $3.31 | $3.32 | $3.32 | $3.33 | $3.34 | $3.34 | $3.35 | $3.36 | $3.36 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars ) | 8,955.00 | 8,948.40 | 9,266.60 | 9,521.00 | 9,905.50 | 10,174.80 | 10,561.00 | 11,034.90 | 11,525.90 | 12,065.90 | 12,559.70 | 12,682.30 | 12,908.80 | 13,271.10 | 13,773.50 | 14,234.30 | 14,613.80 | 14,873.80 | 14,830.40 | 14,418.80 | 14,783.80 | 15,020.60 | 15,354.60 | 15,612.20 | 16,013.30 | 16,471.50 | 16,716.20 | 17,074.90 | 17,540.70 | 17,957.30 | 18,335.10 | 18,741.70 | 19,124.40 | 19,489.70 | 19,847.60 | 20,202.50 | 20,568.70 | 20,948.20 | 21,368.20 | 21,804.00 | 22,244.60 | 22,699.90 | 23,158.20 | 23,626.10 | 24,099.40 | 24,571.00 | 25,062.10 | 25,559.00 | 26,060.40 | 26,575.70 | 27,095.90 | 27,627.20 | 28,169.60 | 28,730.70 | 29,302.10 | 29,883.20 | 30,470.00 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | -0.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -0.3 | -2.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 130.7 | 136.2 | 140.3 | 144.5 | 148.2 | 152.4 | 156.9 | 160.5 | 163 | 166.6 | 172.2 | 177 | 179.9 | 184 | 188.9 | 195.3 | 201.6 | 207.3 | 215.3 | 214.6 | 218.1 | 224.9 | 229.6 | 232.9 | 236.7 | 237 | 240 | 244.7 | 248.7 | 254.2 | 261.2 | 268 | 274.9 | 282 | 289.2 | 296.6 | 304 | 311.6 | 319.1 | 326.9 | 334.8 | 342.7 | 350.9 | 359.2 | 367.9 | 376.7 | 385.7 | 394.9 | 404.3 | 413.9 | 423.8 | 433.8 | 444.2 | 454.9 | 465.9 | 477.2 | 488.7 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | |
| PCE Index (2009=100) | 67.4 | 69.7 | 71.5 | 73.3 | 74.8 | 76.4 | 78 | 79.3 | 79.9 | 81.1 | 83.1 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 87.6 | 89.7 | 92.3 | 94.7 | 97.1 | 100.1 | 100 | 101.7 | 104.1 | 106.1 | 107.5 | 109.2 | 109.5 | 110.8 | 112.5 | 114 | 116.1 | 118.8 | 121.5 | 124.2 | 127 | 129.8 | 132.7 | 135.5 | 138.3 | 141.1 | 143.9 | 146.8 | 149.7 | 152.7 | 155.7 | 158.8 | 162 | 165.3 | 168.7 | 172.1 | 175.6 | 179.2 | 182.9 | 186.7 | 190.6 | 194.5 | 198.6 | 202.8 |
| Annual % Change | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 10 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Fall 2017 Forecast.