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Forecast Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2012-13
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2041
| Year | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion CY2005 Dollars) |
551.0 | 561.1 | 587.0 | 612.0 | 644.3 | 667.1 | 699.1 | 754.2 | 801.5 | 835.8 | 870.1 | 891.6 | 912.8 | 914.9 | 964.9 | 968.6 | 1,016.3 | 1,071.6 | 1,077.1 | 1,057.7 | 1,113.1 | 1,149.9 | 1,186.5 | 1,226.7 | 1,270.5 | 1,321.7 | 1,369.9 | 1,421.4 | 1,472.4 | 1,522.6 | 1,573.5 | 1,623.6 | 1,671.2 | 1,720.0 | 1,773.0 | 1,830.5 | 1,890.6 | 1,952.9 | 2,017.3 | 2,084.1 | 2,154.5 | 2,225.6 | 2,296.1 | 2,368.7 | 2,445.1 | 2,526.5 | 2,611.4 | 2,698.2 | 2,785.8 | 2,874.2 | 2,965.0 | 3,054.3 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion CY2005 Dollars) | 3.5 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 0.5 | -1.8 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) |
382.4 | 396.5 | 421.1 | 450.1 | 480.3 | 508.0 | 549.7 | 602.2 | 634.3 | 670.6 | 731.1 | 762.9 | 782.8 | 824.5 | 903.7 | 968.6 | 1,054.4 | 1,147.4 | 1,209.3 | 1,129.5 | 1,222.9 | 1,308.1 | 1,380.1 | 1,450.9 | 1,530.8 | 1,620.9 | 1,708.7 | 1,800.7 | 1,895.6 | 1,984.8 | 2,083.5 | 2,184.1 | 2,284.0 | 2,387.7 | 2,499.5 | 2,620.2 | 2,747.3 | 2,880.4 | 3,019.4 | 3,165.5 | 3,320.9 | 3,481.7 | 3,644.0 | 3,812.5 | 3,991.5 | 4,181.8 | 4,381.3 | 4,587.8 | 4,800.2 | 5,018.2 | 5,244.1 | 5,471.5 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 8.8 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 5.4 | -6.6 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) |
294.4 | 309.0 | 333.3 | 352.6 | 374.3 | 399.5 | 430.5 | 470.1 | 511.5 | 542.7 | 597 | 622.2 | 628.3 | 652.6 | 696.8 | 756.7 | 824.3 | 884.1 | 963.0 | 907.6 | 965.3 | 1,030.2 | 1,081.4 | 1,136.4 | 1,195.8 | 1,258.8 | 1,323.4 | 1,387.6 | 1,459.4 | 1,536.3 | 1,618.4 | 1,700.6 | 1,785.6 | 1,874.1 | 1,967.1 | 2,067.0 | 2,171.2 | 2,281.2 | 2,397.3 | 2,519.0 | 2,648.7 | 2,784.5 | 2,925.7 | 3,073.2 | 3,230.3 | 3,398.6 | 3,576.3 | 3,762.4 | 3,956.7 | 4,158.6 | 4,370.3 | 4,592.7 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 8.5 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -5.8 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) |
7,101.0 | 7,181.7 | 7,274.9 | 7,487.2 | 7,756.8 | 8,029.0 | 8,263.7 | 8,614.5 | 8,942.9 | 9,159.6 | 9,431.8 | 9,514.5 | 9,416.8 | 9,370.9 | 9,495.9 | 9,738.7 | 10,063.8 | 10,392.7 | 10,605.2 | 10,303.0 | 10,339.9 | 10,554.8 | 10,793.4 | 11,030.3 | 11,263.5 | 11,532.7 | 11,813.3 | 12,074.3 | 12,310.2 | 12,527.9 | 12,747.7 | 12,942.1 | 13,139.3 | 13,322.5 | 13,507.2 | 13,706.0 | 13,911.1 | 14,132.4 | 14,356.4 | 14,577.8 | 14,813.2 | 15,037.3 | 15,267.1 | 15,494.3 | 15,729.1 | 15,976.9 | 16,234.1 | 16,501.1 | 16,772.3 | 17,043.3 | 17,324.2 | 17,593.3 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | -2.8 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) |
17,104.7 | 17,443.9 | 17,811.8 | 18,211.3 | 18,612.3 | 19,005 | 19,390.9 | 19,792.9 | 20,205.9 | 20,629.6 | 21,014.5 | 21,365.2 | 21,730.6 | 22,077.3 | 22,442.9 | 22,897.2 | 23,426 | 23,891.2 | 24,370.8 | 24,856.7 | 25,305.5 | 25,728.5 | 26,107.3 | 26,490.6 | 26,938.1 | 27,377.6 | 27,807.5 | 28,241.2 | 28,686.1 | 29,146.6 | 29,620.6 | 30,102.2 | 30,589.6 | 31,078.6 | 31,566.2 | 32,055.8 | 32,549.9 | 33,046.6 | 33,542.5 | 34,040.3 | 34,540.0 | 35,043.0 | 35,556.3 | 36,080.1 | 3,6610.3 | 37,148.3 | 37,692.9 | 38,243.8 | 38,799.7 | 39,358.8 | 39,920.4 | 40,486.3 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.4 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Taxable Oil Price ($per Barrel) |
$22.35 | $19.05 | $18.40 | $16.23 | $15.08 | $16.45 | $20.41 | $18.76 | $12.36 | $17.39 | $28.72 | $23.74 | $24.36 | $29.38 | $38.95 | $52.77 | $61.52 | $68.51 | $96.54 | $57.56 | $76.10 | $91.71 | $91.99 | $82.49 | $81.41 | $79.64 | $83.62 | $91.99 | $98.89 | $103.84 | $108.00 | $111.23 | $114.58 | $118.01 | $121.55 | $125.20 | $127.70 | $128.97 | $130.26 | $131.57 | $132.88 | $134.21 | $135.55 | $136.91 | $138.28 | $139.66 | $141.06 | $142.47 | $143.89 | $145.33 | $146.78 | $148.26 |
| Taxable Nat. Gas Price ($per Mcf) |
$1.48 | $1.37 | $1.70 | $1.89 | $1.61 | $1.45 | $2.07 | $2.17 | $1.83 | $2.08 | $3.75 | $3.85 | $2.89 | $4.71 | $5.44 | $7.27 | $6.17 | $6.30 | $7.85 | $3.32 | $4.12 | $4.27 | $2.85 | $3.33 | $4.02 | $4.05 | $4.22 | $4.24 | $4.39 | $4.41 | $4.49 | $4.77 | $4.83 | $5.02 | $5.20 | $5.36 | $5.45 | $5.43 | $5.57 | $5.74 | $6.06 | $6.13 | $6.24 | $6.46 | $6.74 | $7.02 | $7.26 | $7.46 | $7.65 | $7.84 | $8.04 | $8.24 |
| U.S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross U.S. Product (Billion CY2005 Dollars) |
8,027.0 | 8,008.3 | 8,280.0 | 8,516.2 | 8,863.1 | 9,086.0 | 9,425.9 | 9,845.9 | 10,274.8 | 10,770.6 | 11,216.4 | 11,337.5 | 11,543.1 | 11,836.4 | 12,246.9 | 12,623.0 | 12,958.5 | 13,206.4 | 13,161.9 | 12,758.0 | 13,063.0 | 13,299.1 | 13,574.6 | 13,819.5 | 14,226.9 | 14,704.5 | 15,128.1 | 15,528.3 | 15,906.6 | 16,295.7 | 16,703.4 | 17,113.0 | 17,547.9 | 18,120.9 | 18,582.5 | 19,056.0 | 19,533.4 | 20,023.9 | 20,522.9 | 21,034.3 | 21,575.6 | 22,123.7 | 22,676.1 | 23,236.8 | 23,822.1 | 24,435.6 | 25,069.1 | 25,717.6 | 26,370.9 | 27,028.1 | 27,708.1 | 28,421.4 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | 1.8 | -0.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 | -0.3 | -3.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) |
130.7 | 136.2 | 140.3 | 144.5 | 148.2 | 152.4 | 156.9 | 160.5 | 163.0 | 166.6 | 172.2 | 177.0 | 179.9 | 184.0 | 188.9 | 195.3 | 201.6 | 207.3 | 215.3 | 214.6 | 218.1 | 224.9 | 229.5 | 232.5 | 236.6 | 240.6 | 245.1 | 249.7 | 254.7 | 259.7 | 264.8 | 269.9 | 275.3 | 280.8 | 286.4 | 292.1 | 297.9 | 303.8 | 309.9 | 316.1 | 322.5 | 329.2 | 335.9 | 342.8 | 349.9 | 357.2 | 364.6 | 372.2 | 380.0 | 388.1 | 396.3 | 404.7 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 5.4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) |
10.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, and IHS Global Insight, Inc.