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Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

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Certification Revenue Estimate 2018-19, Revised July 2018Table 4: Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 to 2019

July 2018 Forecast

Measure 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019*
TEXAS ECONOMY
Real Gross State Product (Billion 2009 $) $1,189 $1,225 $1,292 $1,363 $1,409 $1,483 $1,482 $1,504 $1,572 $1,638
Annual percent change 1.7% 3.1% 5.5% 5.5% 3.4% 5.2% 0.0% 1.5% 4.5% 4.2%
Nominal Gross State Product (Billion $) $1,222 $1,318 $1,414 $1,513 $1,598 $1,620 $1,595 $1,665 $1,793 $1,907
Annual percent change 4.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.0% 5.6% 1.4% (1.6%) 4.4% 7.7% 6.3%
Personal Income (Billion $) $939 $1,026 $1,102 $1,147 $1,211 $1,279 $1,289 $1,314 $1,374 $1,461
Annual percent change 1.9% 9.4% 7.3% 4.2% 5.5% 5.6% 0.8% 2.0% 4.6% 6.4%
Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) 10,323 10,546 10,824 11,164 11,492 11,820 11,974 12,163 12,456 12,771
Annual percent change (1.1%) 2.2% 2.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 1.3% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5%
Resident Population (Thousands) 25,190 25,596 26,022 26,434 26,897 27,389 27,845 28,255 28,669 29,103
Annual percent change 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Unemployment Rate (Percent) 8.2% 7.9% 7.0% 6.4% 5.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5%
NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) $76.32 $91.25 $94.28 $93.65 $101.05 $64.94 $41.40 $48.77 $60.00 $64.00
NYMEX Natural Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) $4.43 $4.20 $3.10 $3.48 $4.18 $3.34 $2.26 $2.99 $2.85 $2.90
U.S. ECONOMY
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2009 $) $14,685 $14,958 $15,306 $15,510 $15,907 $16,390 $16,640 $16,987 $17,458 $17,965
Annual percent change 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 1.3% 2.6% 3.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9%
Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) 217.4 223.1 228.5 232.2 236.0 236.7 238.9 243.9 249.4 254.3
Annual percent change 1.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator (2009=100) 101.3 103.5 105.7 107.2 108.8 109.4 110.3 112.2 114.2 116.2
Annual percent change 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7%
Prime Interest Rate (Percent) 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.9% 4.7% 5.7%

*Estimated or projected
Sources: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts; and IHS Markit