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Texas Economic Forecast 2015-16

Texas Economy Detail
Fiscal Years 1971—2045

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Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Texas Exports (Billions of Dollars) 3.51 3.79 5.1 7.09 8.02 8.78 9.31 10.71 13.08 16.16 18.11 17.23 16.58 17.99 18.14 18.89 20.83 29.42 33.68 36.48 41.45 44.53 46.26 52.39 60.51 65.32 73.91 79.36 79.38 100.06 99.57 93.55 97.49 112.66 126.25 144.09 164.29 192.37 161.25 195.98 242.38 261.98 273.08 294.80 262.56 271.16 288.42 307.33 328.62 349.59 372.38 398.41 426.03 454.49 482.97 512.85 545.24 578.58 613.28 648.30 686.14 726.52 769.04 813.04 858.27 904.80 953.99 1,006.08 1,060.61 1,117.60 1,174.94 1,236.15 1,299.93 1,365.01 1,432.66
AGRICULTURE  
Total Agricultural Receipts (Millions of Dollars) 13,464 15,172 24,592 23,060 23,336 24,864 26,124 28,968 39,136 36,736 38,197 37,817 36,661 38,467 37,571 34,557 35,758 40,385 42,997 46,368 48,670 46,667 49,077 51,369 52,084 51,068 52,110 53,514 51,776 51,479 54,346 51,244 58,712 65,705 67,206 64,807 72,122 75,156 67,098 75,113 87,410 91,851 89,532 89,295 86,201 84,993 87,564 90,341 93,199 95,207 97,184 99,973 102,908 105,728 108,359 110,677 112,969 115,516 118,053 120,416 123,069 125,585 128,095 130,872 133,562 136,363 139,268 142,275 145,432 148,660 151,949 155,287 158,704 162,227 165,815
Cash Receipts: Crops (Millions of Dollars) 4,668 5,292 10,316 10,828 11,148 12,248 12,604 11,708 15,252 15,484 16,551 16,153 14,780 14,934 15,522 12,763 11,961 14,290 16,025 15,918 17,135 16,195 17,303 18,948 18,766 19,921 20,224 20,396 18,482 15,864 16,548 17,611 19,761 21,970 24,037 23,722 28,165 29,033 24,108 29,388 28,018 33,686 28,234 23,110 21,226 21,114 21,974 22,709 23,697 24,543 25,324 26,166 27,053 27,915 28,820 29,687 30,498 31,350 32,212 33,081 33,965 34,869 35,798 36,753 37,735 38,746 39,788 40,863 41,969 43,106 44,273 45,469 46,696 47,959 49,259
Cash Receipts: Livestock (Millions of Dollars) 8,796 9,884 14,280 12,232 12,188 12,616 13,520 17,264 23,880 21,252 21,646 21,664 21,881 23,533 22,050 21,793 23,797 26,095 26,972 30,450 31,535 30,472 31,773 32,421 33,318 31,146 31,886 33,117 33,294 35,615 37,798 33,633 38,951 43,736 43,169 41,085 43,957 46,123 42,990 45,725 59,391 58,165 61,298 66,185 64,976 63,879 65,591 67,632 69,503 70,664 71,860 73,807 75,856 77,813 79,539 80,990 82,471 84,166 85,840 87,334 89,104 90,717 92,297 94,119 95,826 97,617 99,479 101,412 103,464 105,554 107,677 109,819 112,008 114,267 116,556
ENERGY AND MINING  
Oil Production (Millions of Barrels) NA 1,192.3 1,261.7 1,240.9 1,192.5 1,167.3 1,120.6 1,064.3 1,002.1 946.6 905.2 879.1 858.3 838.6 831.6 812.0 737.9 709.3 668.8 649.2 652.2 628.5 594.9 559.9 526.8 504.9 485.9 472.5 410.4 406.6 385.0 370.1 359.8 353.4 348.9 346.3 342.4 344.4 350.0 353.8 409.3 552.5 734.3 930.2 1,113.3 941.9 920.9 920.3 920.3 922.8 920.3 920.3 920.3 922.8 920.3 920.3 920.3 922.8 920.3 920.3 920.3 922.8 920.3 920.3 920.3 922.8 920.3 920.3 920.3 922.8 922.8 922.8 922.8 922.8 922.8
Natural Gas Production (Millions of Mcf) NA NA NA NA NA NA 11,240.5 10,646.6 10,599.4 10,658.6 10,205.7 9,614.6 8,391.7 8,575.7 8,317.1 8,248.8 7,683.8 8,022.1 7,745.9 7,987.1 8,179.3 6,404.4 4,873.9 5,050.5 4,760.3 4,816.7 5,001.7 4,978.3 4,816.0 4,822.5 5,081.3 5,113.6 5,141.7 5,174.2 5,321.3 5,714.7 6,113.0 7,129.1 7,538.1 6,861.8 7,039.1 7,208.5 7,292.1 7,369.6 7,437.3 7,256.4 7,161.9 7,190.4 7,233.7 7,270.0 7,299.3 7,335.8 7,372.5 7,409.3 7,446.4 7,483.6 7,521.0 7,558.6 7,596.4 7,634.4 7,672.6 7,711.0 7,749.5 7,788.3 7,827.2 7,866.3 7,905.7 7,945.2 7,984.9 8,024.8 8,065.0 8,105.3 8,145.8 8,186.5 8,227.5
Average Taxable Oil Price (Dollars/Barrel) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $30.25 $27.84 $20.61 $17.52 $17.77 $17.49 $19.74 $25.42 $20.91 $20.13 $16.86 $18.26 $19.60 $22.27 $17.13 $14.95 $26.70 $29.76 $23.74 $30.11 $34.55 $50.31 $65.63 $63.45 $101.93 $64.09 $76.32 $91.25 $94.28 $93.65 $101.05 $64.94 $49.48 $56.52 $60.41 $63.08 $65.83 $71.88 $74.51 $77.24 $80.06 $83.00 $86.03 $89.18 $92.46 $95.83 $99.34 $102.98 $106.75 $110.66 $114.70 $118.90 $123.25 $127.76 $132.44 $137.28 $142.31 $147.52 $152.91 $158.52 $164.32 $170.33
Average Taxable Natural Gas Price (Dollars/Mcf) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $1.66 $2.11 $2.43 $2.47 $2.05 $2.86 $5.41 $2.84 $4.80 $5.55 $6.57 $9.28 $7.06 $8.47 $5.91 $4.44 $4.20 $3.10 $3.48 $4.18 $3.34 $2.91 $3.05 $3.28 $3.62 $3.95 $4.24 $4.48 $4.58 $4.70 $4.82 $4.94 $5.07 $5.21 $5.34 $5.48 $5.62 $5.77 $5.92 $6.07 $6.23 $6.39 $6.56 $6.73 $6.90 $7.08 $7.27 $7.46 $7.65 $7.85 $8.05
Rig Count 296 319 358 470 609 645 753 847 767 947 1,239 1,125 783 860 744 374 282 296 257 331 340 246 264 275 257 271 338 338 213 312 459 353 419 491 581 717 812 892 544 585 793 915 840 867 573 352 407 437 458 475 485 494 507 516 522 529 536 545 553 562 568 577 584 592 601 609 618 626 633 643 651 660 670 680 689
Construction  
Total Housing Starts (Thousands) NA NA NA 91.2 87.9 123.8 164.5 203.4 180.5 145.8 156.5 182.3 284.1 243.0 152.7 120.1 64.4 45.3 45.2 51.5 51.6 69.2 81.5 105.9 108.5 121.0 127.6 151.7 152.9 142.3 147.4 159.0 169.2 181.4 189.8 213.4 175.5 140.9 87.0 86.4 87.2 114.3 135.4 154.0 162.5 182.4 200.9 206.8 211.7 220.7 222.6 222.5 222.1 224.9 227.3 229.1 231.2 227.7 229.8 235.0 237.7 236.9 237.5 239.4 241.7 243.7 245.2 247.2 247.4 248.9 251.9 255.1 258.2 262.6 267.2
Single-Family (Thousands) NA NA NA 52.7 67.1 78.2 98.4 122.7 105.2 86.2 91.8 86.9 125.1 112.5 86.0 73.3 53.4 40.7 41.8 43.4 44.7 59.3 71.3 81.4 77.0 92.6 87.5 104.0 109.9 110.8 118.8 123.3 133.2 147.0 157.8 175.9 134.6 92.9 64.5 73.0 64.7 77.7 87.3 96.4 107.2 115.7 129.6 135.1 137.5 140.1 139.9 139.9 140.3 140.7 140.1 140.0 141.1 136.5 135.5 137.2 137.9 135.2 134.5 135.5 136.6 137.0 136.9 137.7 137.2 137.9 139.4 139.5 140.6 142.9 145.4
Multi-Family (Thousands) NA NA NA 38.5 20.8 45.6 66.1 80.7 75.3 59.6 64.7 95.4 159.1 130.6 66.7 46.8 11.0 4.6 3.4 8.1 6.9 9.9 10.2 24.6 31.5 28.4 40.1 47.7 43.0 31.5 28.6 35.6 36.0 34.4 31.9 37.5 40.9 48.1 22.5 13.4 22.5 36.6 48.1 57.7 55.3 66.7 71.3 71.8 74.3 80.6 82.8 82.6 81.8 84.2 87.2 89.1 90.0 91.2 94.3 97.8 99.8 101.7 103.0 103.9 105.1 106.7 108.2 109.5 110.2 111.0 112.6 115.6 117.6 119.8 121.8
Nonresidential Area (Millions of Square Feet) NA NA NA NA NA 88.8 97.2 122.5 151.3 140.1 174.6 167.6 133.7 141.2 172.0 121.5 89.0 64.4 60.6 53.2 75.3 66.2 74.2 89.1 92.2 98.8 115.0 150.6 161.6 159.9 168.0 136.9 130.7 123.1 129.9 157.0 184.6 180.6 106.8 81.8 81.3 93.8 118.2 149.3 125.0 120.8 139.2 150.9 162.6 175.6 183.8 191.2 197.2 204.0 209.9 213.4 218.5 221.8 226.6 232.5 238.4 241.7 243.6 247.7 251.4 256.2 260.6 265.1 268.9 273.9 279.7 285.2 291.2 297.2 302.6
Nonbuilding Value (Millions of Dollars) 673 1,124 1,070 1,158 1,652 1,164 2,108 1,791 3,160 2,886 4,157 2,040 3,297 2,777 4,044 4,041 4,262 4,193 3,501 3,394 3,264 3,115 3,894 4,225 4,723 4,792 4,492 5,177 8,361 7,752 10,064 8,644 7,240 8,963 9,202 12,055 13,739 12,208 10,180 11,706 14,651 17,626 17,133 16,877 44,453 53,258 55,086 56,980 59,033 61,134 63,252 65,642 68,029 70,524 72,991 75,541 78,355 81,512 84,869 88,334 92,179 96,193 100,236 104,730 109,380 114,534 120,029 125,887 132,132 139,035 146,342 154,004 162,386 171,156 180,159
RETAIL SALES (TAXABLE)  
Total Automobile Sales (Thousands) 619.9 737.5 948.9 767.4 678.4 858.2 1,001.2 1,051.1 1,012.4 908.6 937.4 907.8 890.6 1,021.0 1,108.8 1,042.3 875.3 915.9 961.0 945.8 3,549.3 3,686.5 3,614.8 4,119.5 4,157.3 4,862.1 4,473.7 4,756.6 5,136.1 5,624.1 5,488.0 5,722.3 5,210.6 4,989.2 5,141.1 5,134.4 5,462.1 5,088.8 3,514.9 3,547.0 3,993.1 4,830.9 5,695.1 6,058.8 6,475.1 6,680.4 6,838.4 6,970.3 7,013.4 7,067.8 7,148.9 7,188.6 7,285.2 7,406.3 7,521.0 7,651.6 7,846.2 8,020.8 8,182.0 8,333.9 8,476.3 8,648.1 8,815.8 8,994.1 9,198.3 9,402.5 9,612.0 9,840.8 10,070.0 10,319.2 10,562.3 10,825.9 11,122.4 11,431.4 11,753.0
Cars (Thousands) 483.3 561.4 705.1 552.1 496.5 611.9 703.7 720.5 704.5 633.3 647.0 588.9 576.7 635.7 674.1 639.4 533.3 548.7 571.6 554.4 2,081.2 2,048.1 1,925.1 2,173.9 2,155.7 2,492.0 2,180.7 2,184.0 2,284.1 2,418.3 2,247.1 2,253.5 2,019.7 1,868.5 2,015.7 2,156.5 2,202.6 2,269.6 1,574.2 1,499.1 1,667.7 2,068.7 2,503.3 2,580.3 2,527.5 2,533.5 2,725.4 2,839.1 2,927.1 3,053.3 3,155.8 3,243.2 3,374.4 3,490.6 3,596.5 3,702.8 3,839.0 3,965.1 4,085.9 4,204.0 4,319.8 4,453.0 4,586.7 4,728.7 4,886.9 5,047.3 5,212.3 5,390.5 5,572.3 5,768.3 5,963.6 6,173.2 6,404.5 6,646.1 6,898.4
Trucks (Thousands) 136.6 176.0 243.8 215.2 181.8 246.3 297.5 330.6 307.8 275.3 290.4 318.9 313.9 385.3 434.7 402.8 342.0 367.2 389.4 391.4 1,468.1 1,638.4 1,689.6 1,945.7 2,001.6 2,370.1 2,293.1 2,572.6 2,852.0 3,205.8 3,240.9 3,468.8 3,190.9 3,120.7 3,125.4 2,977.9 3,259.5 2,819.1 1,940.7 2,047.9 2,325.5 2,762.2 3,191.8 3,478.5 3,947.6 4,146.8 4,113.0 4,131.2 4,086.3 4,014.5 3,993.1 3,945.4 3,910.8 3,915.7 3,924.4 3,948.8 4,007.3 4,055.7 4,096.1 4,129.9 4,156.5 4,195.1 4,229.1 4,265.4 4,311.3 4,355.2 4,399.7 4,450.3 4,497.7 4,550.9 4,598.7 4,652.7 4,717.9 4,785.3 4,854.6
Retail Sales, Excluding Automobiles (Taxable, Millions of Dollars) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 65,523 69,284 74,059 79,269 84,012 88,844 93,287 100,551 107,153 114,360 118,550 122,845 124,209 131,758 140,579 154,161 164,645 169,968 166,503 165,568 175,461 189,305 201,831 212,618 227,142 239,321 251,260 265,913 279,697 294,881 309,971 324,512 340,295 357,522 374,951 393,585 413,629 435,168 457,532 481,357 506,628 533,451 561,610 591,490 623,352 657,136 692,554 729,965 769,419 811,793 856,403 903,424 953,671 1,007,310 1,063,881

Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Fall 2015-16 Forecast