Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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Certification Revenue Estimate: A Closer Look (PDF)

A CLOSER LOOK Certification Revenue Estimate

The Comptroller issues the Biennial Revenue Estimate before the regular legislative session convenes in January to project the amount of revenue available for lawmakers to spend on state programs through the following biennium. The Certification Revenue Estimate — provided after the session ends, and this year after three special sessions — revises projections to reflect legislative activity and current economic information.

IN THE 2021 CRE, the Comptroller is projecting substantial growth in revenue available for general-purpose spending in the 2022-23 biennium. Since April of this year, the Texas economy and state taxes have continued to outperform expectations after being suppressed by the pandemic earlier in the 2020-21 biennium. The Comptroller expects continued economic expansion through the 2022-23 biennium and will issue revenue updates if conditions warrant.

Revenue Available for General Purpose Spending
in the 2022-23 Biennium (In Billions of Dollars)

Revenue 2020-21 Actual 2022-23 Projected
General Revenue-Related (GR-R)
Tax Collections
plus$101.76 plus$117.20
Other GR-R Revenues plus$15.72 plus$16.17
Total GR-R Revenues equals$117.49 equals$133.37
Beginning Balance
(Funds carried forward from previous biennium)
plus$5.28 plus$10.96
Total GR-R Revenue
& Fund Balances
equals$122.76 equals$144.33 SUBTOTAL
Revenue Reserved for Transfers to the Economic Stabilization and State Highway Funds minus$5.18 minus$9.01
Total Revenue Available for General-Purpose Spending equals$117.58 equals$135.32 TOTAL

Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.

Revenue Transfers to the State Highway Fund and Rainy Day Fund

Severance Tax Transfers to the ESF and SHF

The rainy day fund will have a projected balance of
$12.62 billion
at the end of fiscal 2023, taking into account interest and investment earnings, and absent any additional legislative appropriations.

The State Highway Fund (SHF) and Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF or Rainy Day Fund) receive required transfers of tax revenue that are reflected in the CRE, including:

  • $1.46 BILLION each from oil and gas severance taxes in  fiscal 2022 and
  • $2.43 BILLION apiece in  fiscal 2023.

In addition, the SHF will receive:

  • $2.5 billion. in sales tax revenue in each year of the 2022-23 biennium.
  • $297 million in fiscal 2022 and an expected $338 million in  fiscal 2023 in motor vehicle sales tax revenue.