Certification Revenue Estimate: A Closer Look (PDF)
The Comptroller issues the Biennial Revenue Estimate before the regular legislative session convenes in January to project the amount of revenue available for lawmakers to spend on state programs through the following biennium. The Certification Revenue Estimate — provided after the session ends, and this year after three special sessions — revises projections to reflect legislative activity and current economic information.
IN THE 2021 CRE, the Comptroller is projecting substantial growth in revenue available for general-purpose spending in the 2022-23 biennium. Since April of this year, the Texas economy and state taxes have continued to outperform expectations after being suppressed by the pandemic earlier in the 2020-21 biennium. The Comptroller expects continued economic expansion through the 2022-23 biennium and will issue revenue updates if conditions warrant.
|2020-21 Actual||2022-23 Projected||Notes|
|General Revenue-Related (GR-R)
|Other GR-R Revenues||plus$15.72||plus$16.17|
|Total GR-R Revenues||equals$117.49||equals$133.37|
(Funds carried forward from previous biennium)
Total GR-R Revenue
& Fund Balances
|Revenue Reserved for Transfers to the Economic Stabilization and State Highway Funds||minus$5.18||minus$9.01|
|Total Revenue Available for General-Purpose Spending||equals$117.58||equals$135.32||TOTAL|
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
The rainy day fund will have
a projected balance of
at the end of fiscal 2023, taking into account interest and investment earnings, and absent any additional legislative appropriations.
The State Highway Fund (SHF) and Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF or Rainy Day Fund) receive required transfers of tax revenue that are reflected in the CRE, including:
In addition, the SHF will receive: