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Percent Change in Sales Taxes, Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes, Severance Taxes and Total Taxes 1997 to 2023
January 2023
Biennial Revenue Estimate
Volatility
Percent Change in Sales Taxes, Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes, Severance Taxes and Total Taxes 1997 to 2023
(All Funds, Excluding Trusts)
| Year | Sales Tax Collections (Percent Change) | Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Tax Collections (Percent Change) | Severance Tax Collections (Percent Change) | Total Tax Collections (Percent Change) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY1997 | 5.1% | 4.3% | 38.5% | 7.2% |
| FY1998 | 9.9% | 11.1% | -23.0% | 6.8% |
| FY1999 | 4.9% | 9.1% | -20.4% | 4.3% |
| FY2000 | 6.9% | 12.0% | 59.3% | 7.1% |
| FY2001 | 4.9% | 4.4% | 83.0% | 7.7% |
| FY2002 | -1.0% | 1.5% | -52.6% | -3.5% |
| FY2003 | -1.6% | -8.7% | 54.4% | -0.6% |
| FY2004 | 8.0% | 1.7% | 26.5% | 6.8% |
| FY2005 | 5.8% | 3.9% | 23.9% | 6.9% |
| FY2006 | 12.0% | 8.0% | 36.9% | 12.4% |
| FY2007 | 10.9% | 8.1% | -14.7% | 10.2% |
| FY2008 | 6.6% | 0.5% | 50.9% | 11.9% |
| FY2009 | -2.7% | -22.2% | -44.4% | -8.5% |
| FY2010 | -6.6% | 1.1% | -24.3% | -6.5% |
| FY2011 | 9.4% | 13.2% | 48.9% | 9.9% |
| FY2012 | 12.6% | 19.5% | 40.9% | 13.4% |
| FY2013 | 7.2% | 9.0% | 23.3% | 8.4% |
| FY2014 | 5.6% | 8.5% | 28.7% | 6.7% |
| FY2015 | 5.6% | 7.2% | -28.0% | 1.4% |
| FY2016 | -2.3% | 2.2% | -45.1% | -6.2% |
| FY2017 | 2.3% | -1.8% | 35.3% | 2.4% |
| FY2018 | 10.5% | 9.7% | 56.1% | 12.0% |
| FY2019 | 6.5% | 0.7% | 15.5% | 6.8% |
| FY2020 | 0.2% | -3.9% | -25.4% | -3.4% |
| FY2021 | 5.6% | 19.0% | 20.8% | 7.1% |
| FY2022 | 19.3% | 12.5% | 115.9% | 25.6% |
| FY2023* | 7.1% | 6.9% | -7.8% | 5.0% |
*Amount is estimated in 2024-25 Biennial Revenue Estimate
There is some volatility in all tax collections, but severance tax collections stand out for their large swings over the past two decades. Oil prices were less than $20 a barrel in January 2002, spiked to a record high of more than $134 in June 2008, saw a record low negative $37.63 on April 20, 2020, and surged to $123 on March 8, 2022, before dropping to $83 in September 2022. Natural gas market prices, which were around $2 per million BTUs in the 1980s and 1990s, began climbing in 2002. They reached an all-time monthly average high of $13.45 in October 2005, declined until they were $2.05 in April 2012 and rose again to hit $9.68 in August 2022.
Growth in Tax Collections
| Tax | Average Growth 1996-2021 | Total Growth 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Taxes | 4.9% | 19.3% |
| Motor Vehicle Taxes | 4.4% | 12.5% |
| Severance Taxes | 7.5% | 115.9% |
| Total Taxes | 4.6% | 25.6% |