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January 2023
Biennial Revenue Estimate
Inflation
The highest rate of general price inflation in 40 years has helped to drive the substantial increase in sales tax revenue collections. Inflation is no longer accelerating, but it remains well above the Federal Reserve’s policy target. If the Federal Reserve again significantly increases interest rates to try to control inflation, this could deepen an expected mild recession in 2023.
Sales Tax Revenue, Jan. 2021 to Dec. 2022
| Month/Year | Sales Tax Revenue in Billions (Current) | Sales Tax Revenue in Billions (Constant) | Inflation Rate (CPI-U) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2021 | $3.07 | $3.05 | 1.4% |
| Feb 2021 | $2.51 | $2.48 | 1.7% |
| Mar 2021 | $2.63 | $2.58 | 2.6% |
| Apr 2021 | $3.40 | $3.31 | 4.2% |
| May 2021 | $3.40 | $3.28 | 5.0% |
| Jun 2021 | $3.16 | $3.03 | 5.4% |
| Jul 2021 | $3.39 | $3.22 | 5.4% |
| Aug 2021 | $3.33 | $3.15 | 5.3% |
| Sep 2021 | $3.15 | $2.97 | 5.4% |
| Oct 2021 | $3.41 | $3.21 | 6.2% |
| Nov 2021 | $3.56 | $3.32 | 6.8% |
| Dec 2021 | $3.56 | $3.30 | 7.0% |
| Jan 2022 | $3.85 | $3.56 | 7.5% |
| Feb 2022 | $3.23 | $2.96 | 7.9% |
| Mar 2022 | $3.37 | $3.07 | 8.5% |
| Apr 2022 | $3.83 | $3.44 | 8.3% |
| May 2022 | $3.69 | $3.29 | 8.6% |
| Jun 2022 | $3.68 | $3.24 | 9.1% |
| Jul 2022 | $3.88 | $3.38 | 8.5% |
| Aug 2022 | $3.77 | $3.28 | 8.3% |
| Sep 2022 | $3.69 | $3.21 | 8.2% |
| Oct 2022 | $3.82 | $3.32 | 7.7% |
| Nov 2022 | $3.96 | $3.43 | 7.1% |
| Dec 2022 | $3.93 | $3.41 | 7.1% |
Note: The difference between current and constant dollars is the share of sales tax revenue attributable to inflation.