July 17, 2024

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar: No Need for Formal Revision of Certification Revenue Estimate

(AUSTIN) — Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar today said he will not release a formal revision of the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE), citing the fact that net general revenue-related (GR-R) collections through the first 10 months of fiscal 2024 are tracking with the 2024-25 CRE (PDF) issued last October.

In a July 17 letter (PDF) to state leadership, Hegar noted that this year contrasts with recent years during which pandemic disruptions and rapidly surging inflation necessitated updates to previous forecasts. 

“This is not to say all sources of GR-R revenue are on estimate — for instance, natural gas production tax revenue is below estimate due to lower-than-forecast prices, while interest income is above estimate as interest rates continue to remain higher than forecast — but that, on net with all GR-R sources considered together, the outlook for total 2024-25 GR-R revenue does not differ materially from the CRE,” Hegar said.

The October 2023 CRE forecast a 2024-25 ending certification balance of $18.3 billion. Adjustments that were made to account for subsequent appropriations provided by Senate Bill 3, 88th Legislature, Fourth Called Session for border initiatives and the final unencumbered and unobligated fiscal 2023 General Revenue Fund ending balance reduced that projected balance to $16.7 billion.

“As always, there are risks and uncertainties that could cause the economy and revenue collections to deviate from our expectations,” Hegar said. “But at this time there are no signs of imminent recession or accelerated expansion that would necessitate a revision to our outlook for continued economic growth at a modest pace.”