This analysis predates the COVID-19 crisis and the economic impacts that followed. It is offered as an overview of the Northwest regional economy and a resource for comparative purposes.
The 30-county Northwest region covers about 27,600 square miles in northern Texas, stretching from Oklahoma on the north to the Colorado River on the south and abutting Big Spring on the west and the Fort Worth metro on the east. The region includes two metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): the Abilene MSA, comprising Callahan, Jones and Taylor counties, and the Wichita Falls MSA, comprising Archer, Clay and Wichita counties. Counties in the region not associated with an MSA include Baylor, Brown, Coleman, Comanche, Cottle, Eastland, Fisher, Foard, Hardeman, Haskell, Jack, Kent, Knox, Mitchell, Montague, Nolan, Runnels, Scurry, Shackelford, Stephens, Stonewall, Throckmorton, Wilbarger and Young counties. The region’s economic center is the city of Abilene in Taylor County.
This report examines regional economic trends including population, household income, jobs and wages and education, as well as economic conditions unique to the Northwest region.
Population
The Northwest region’s estimated total population in 2019 was about 550,500, or nearly 2 percent of the state’s total population. The region’s population has remained stable since the 2010 Census. Taylor and Wichita counties contain about 25 percent and 24 percent of the region’s population respectively. The Abilene MSA accounted for more than 31 percent of the region’s population and less than 1 percent of the state population.
The region’s population stability from 2010 to 2019 contrasts sharply with the state’s, which saw more than 15 percent growth during the period (Exhibit 1). While many of the Northwest counties lost population, others saw increases. Taylor County outpaced all others, seeing its population rise by 5 percent.
Exhibit 1
Northwest Region Population by County,
2010 and 2019
County
2010 Census
Estimate
(as of July 2019)
Change 2010 to 2019
Percent Change
Archer
9,054
8,553
-501
-5.5%
Baylor
3,726
3,509
-217
-5.8%
Brown
38,106
37,864
-242
-0.6%
Callahan
13,544
13,943
399
2.9%
Clay
10,752
10,471
-281
-2.6%
Coleman
8,895
8,175
-720
-8.1%
Comanche
13,974
13,635
-339
-2.4%
Cottle
1,505
1,398
-107
-7.1%
Eastland
18,583
18,360
-223
-1.2%
Fisher
3,974
3,830
-144
-3.6%
Foard
1,336
1,155
-181
-13.5%
Hardeman
4,139
3,933
-206
-5.0%
Haskell
5,899
5,658
-241
-4.1%
Jack
9,044
8,935
-109
-1.2%
Jones
20,202
20,083
-119
-0.6%
Kent
808
762
-46
-5.7%
Knox
3,719
3,664
-55
-1.5%
Mitchell
9,403
8,545
-858
-9.1%
Montague
19,719
19,818
99
0.5%
Nolan
15,216
14,714
-502
-3.3%
Runnels
10,501
10,264
-237
-2.3%
Scurry
16,921
16,703
-218
-1.3%
Shackelford
3,378
3,265
-113
-3.3%
Stephens
9,630
9,366
-264
-2.7%
Stonewall
1,490
1,350
-140
-9.4%
Taylor
131,506
138,034
6,528
5.0%
Throckmorton
1,641
1,501
-140
-8.5%
Wichita
131,500
132,230
730
0.6%
Wilbarger
13,535
12,769
-766
-5.7%
Young
18,550
18,010
-540
-2.9%
Abilene MSA
165,252
172,060
6,808
4.1%
Northwest Region Total
550,250
550,497
247
0.0%
Texas Total
25,145,561
28,995,881
3,850,320
15.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population Composition
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey, the Northwest region’s median age was significantly older than the state’s. Twenty-six of the region’s 30 counties had median ages significantly higher than the state median of 34.2 years in 2018; Throckmorton County residents had a median age exceeding 51 years, higher than any other county in the region and one of the “oldest” in the state. The Abilene MSA had a median age on par with the state.
About 21.5 percent of the Northwest region’s 2018 population was Hispanic — more than 17 percentage points lower than their 38.6 percent share of the total state population (Exhibit 2).
Household Income
The Northwest region had a median household income of $47,848 in 2018. Texas’ household income is generally evenly distributed among five income levels (Exhibit 3). Of more than 9 million Texas households, 21 percent had annual incomes of less than $25,000 in 2018, while 17 percent had incomes of more than $125,000. In every region in the state, nearly 18 percent of households had average incomes between $50,000 and $75,000. Household income in the Northwest region, however, was significantly lower than the state average. Almost 28 percent of the region’s households had 2018 income exceeding $75,000, versus 38 percent for the state.
Exhibit 2
Northwest Region Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2018
Ethnicity
Northwest Region
State Total
Hispanic
21.5%
38.6%
Black (not Hispanic)
6.3%
11.6%
White (not hispanic)
68.9%
43.4%
Other
3.4%
6.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Exhibit 3
Northwest Region and Texas Household Income Percentile, 2018
Income Level
Northwest Region
State Total
less than $25,000
26.6%
21.1%
$25,000 to $50,000
26.9%
23.0%
$50,000 to $75,000
18.8%
17.9%
$75,000 to $125,000
18.2%
20.6%
more than $125,000
9.4%
17.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Regional Industries
In 2019, the Northwest region accounted for nearly 2 percent of total Texas employment. Exhibit 4 lists the industries with the greatest regional employment concentrations compared to the national average, as measured by location quotient (LQ). LQ represents an industry’s proportionate concentration in the region; an LQ greater than 1.0 means that industry employment is more concentrated in the region than nationally. A high LQ can identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region, such as the ability to produce products more efficiently and of a higher quality.
Based on location quotients, the Northwest region is a leader in rail transportation, support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction.
Exhibit 4
Top 10 Northwest Region Industries, 2019
Occupation
LQ
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
Rail Transportation
17.12
22
$38,641
Support Activities for Mining
11.23
5,736
$75,545
Oil and Gas Extraction
10.41
2,225
$96,475
Pipeline Transportation
4.70
355
$105,631
Animal Production and Aquaculture
3.89
1,519
$35,680
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
3.73
2,292
$54,813
Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing
3.72
151
$30,903
Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)
2.52
85
$99,186
Mining (except Oil and Gas)
2.49
700
$56,241
Justice, Public Order and Safety Activities
2.37
6,709
$48,966
Total - All Industries
0.95
207,526
$42,706
Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
U.S. Military Installation Impact
Texas has 14 U.S. military installations within its borders. In 2019, these bases directly employed more than 226,000 and supported nearly 634,000 jobs in all. They also contributed an estimated $75.3 billion annually to the state’s gross domestic product (GDP). The two military installations within the Northwest region, which include Dyess Air Force Base and Sheppard Air Force Base, supported nearly 42,000 jobs and contributed about $5.1 billion to the state’s GDP in 2019 (Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5
U.S. Military Impact on the Northwest Region Estimated 2019
Region
Total Jobs Supported
Contribution to State GDP
Northwest
41,523
$5.1 billion
State of Texas
633,892
$75.3 billion
Note: Figures include private- and public-sector employees with the exception of active-duty military personnel, railroad employees, religious institution employees and the self-employed.
Sources: JobsEQ and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The region’s employment increased by more than 2 percent from 2009 to 2019; employment in the Abilene MSA increased by almost 8 percent over the same period (Exhibit 6). About 33 percent of the region’s total jobs are in the Abilene MSA.
Exhibit 6
Northwest Region Employment Trends, 2019
Area
Number of Jobs (2019)
Actual Change (2009 to 2019)
Percent Change (2009 to 2019)
Abilene MSA
69,037
4,909
7.7%
Northwest Region
207,899
4,942
2.4%
Texas
12,531,100
2,284,407
22.3%
United States
147,886,638
17,768,373
13.7%
Note: Figures include private- and public-sector employees with the exception of active-duty military personnel, railroad employees, religious institution employees and the self-employed.
Sources: JobsEQ and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Significant Regional Occupations
The Northwest region’s most significant occupations are shown in Exhibits 7 and 8, first by location quotient and second by numeric growth during the last five years.
Exhibit 7
Top Occupations in the Northwest Region by Location Quotient, 2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Extraction Workers
2,715
$44,900
8.06
4.5%
-1,976
Funeral Service Workers
208
$38,100
1.97
3.5%
19
Law Enforcement Workers
3,321
$48,600
1.9
0.9%
-150
Other Management Occupations
12,308
$80,300
1.85
1.0%
-168
Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers
139
$50,100
1.82
2.5%
20
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Exhibit 8
Top Occupations in the Northwest Region by Numeric Growth, 2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Other Personal Care and Service Workers
7,652
$20,900
1.17
4.2%
1,313
Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners
9,323
$91,400
1.1
0.8%
995
Food and Beverage Serving Workers
11,957
$20,400
1.05
5.4%
786
Building Cleaning and Pest Control Workers
5,422
$22,400
0.98
4.3%
639
Health Technologists and Technicians
5,935
$40,500
1.26
1.8%
268
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Education
A strong educational foundation provides a cornerstone for growth and competitiveness in the global economy, offering opportunities for workplace advancement and business expansion.
Wages by Educational Attainment
Post-secondary education delivers a good return on investments of time and tuition. In 2018, Northwest region workers with some college or associate degrees and with stable jobs — defined as those employed with the same firm throughout a calendar quarter — earned an average of $3,401 more annually in 2018 than those with a high school degree, while those with at least a bachelor’s degree earned an average of $16,823 more (Exhibit 9).
Exhibit 9
Average Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment, Northwest Region and Texas, 2018
Educational Attainment
Number Employed, Region
Percent of Region
Average Annual Earnings, Region
Number Employed, Texas
Percent of Texas
Average Annual Earnings, Texas
Less than High School
31,068
15.2%
$35,612
2,065,483
17.1%
$42,808
High School or Equivalent, No College
55,171
27.1%
$39,212
2,765,759
22.9%
$52,035
Some College or Associate Degree
58,694
28.8%
$42,613
3,245,675
26.9%
$60,428
Bachelor’s Degree or Advanced Degree
33,383
16.4%
$56,035
2,454,975
20.3%
$95,716
Educational Attainment Unavailable
25,530
12.5%
$21,590
1,544,282
12.8%
$22,087
Total
203,847
$41,019
12,076,174
$58,787
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and JobsEQ
During the 2017-18 school year, 94.5 percent of the Northwest region’s class of public high school senior students graduated, higher than the state’s rate of 90 percent (Exhibit 10). In fact, the region’s high school graduation rate has consistently outperformed the state average.
Exhibit 10
Northwest Region Public High School Graduation Rates,
2009-10 to 2017-18 School Year
Region
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Northwest
86.2%
92.8%
93.6%
92.1%
90.7%
92.1%
92.9%
94.2%
94.5%
Texas
84.3%
85.9%
87.7%
88.0%
88.3%
89.0%
89.1%
89.7%
90.0%
Source: Texas Education Agency
Many high school graduates enroll in postsecondary programs, which offer greater job prospects and the possibility of higher wages. Residents of the Northwest region enjoy a variety of options for higher educational achievement (Exhibit 11).
Exhibit 11 Northwest Region Institutions of Higher Education
Universities
Abilene Christian University
Hardin-Simmons University
Howard Payne University
McMurry University
Midwestern State University
Junior and Community Colleges
Cisco College
Ranger College
Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf
Texas State Technical College – West Texas
Vernon College
Western Texas College
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
The region’s four community college districts provided technical and academic coursework for more than 21,000 students in the 2017-18 school year (Exhibit 12).
Exhibit 12
Northwest Region Community College Overview, 2017-18 School Year
*The percentage of academic or technical graduates employed in the fourth quarter of the calendar year after graduation and/or enrolled in a Texas two- or four-year institution in the following fall after graduation, as specified.
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
In that year, community colleges in the Northwest region awarded more than 1,100 certificates and associate degrees in general studies and liberal arts; the next most-common awards were for health professions, precision production and other trades (Exhibit 13).
Exhibit 13
Top 10 Certificates and Degree Awards in the Northwest Region’s Community Colleges,
2017-18 School Year
Certificates and Degrees
Number Awarded
Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities
1,188
Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences
458
Precision Production
142
Personal and Culinary Services
134
Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
85
Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences
65
Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services
60
Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences
49
Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians
42
Engineering Technologies/Technicians
29
Source: JobsEQ
Regional Economy
The relative health of the Northwest region’s economy can be gauged by its sales tax revenue and by comparisons with other areas on education, population, per capita income and unemployment rate. Together, these data are good indicators of the region’s economic dynamics and competitiveness.
Sales Tax Revenue
Sales taxes are inherently volatile in the short term but when reviewed over time can provide a useful indication of the state’s economic condition.
Between 2007 and 2019, sales receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributable to the Northwest region trended slightly upward but fluctuated. Receipts from 2019 continue this fluctuation around the trendline (Exhibit 14). For 2019, receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributed to businesses in the Northwest region exceeded $5.8 billion, about 1.1 percent of the state’s overall taxable sales. The Abilene MSA directly accounted for more than $2.1 billion of this total.
Exhibit 14
Northwest Region, Taxable Sales, 2007-2019
Year
Revenue Northwest Region
2007
5.3 billion dollars
2008
5.3 billion dollars
2009
4.5 billion dollars
2010
5.1 billion dollars
2011
5.6 billion dollars
2012
5.8 billion dollars
2013
5.8 billion dollars
2014
6.3 billion dollars
2015
5.7 billion dollars
2016
5.1 billion dollars
2017
5.5 billion dollars
2018
5.6 billion dollars
2019
5.8 billion dollars
Note: Numbers shown are for reported revenue subject to sales tax and directly attributed to the region.
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
In 1997, the U.S., Canada and Mexico jointly released the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which classifies all business enterprises for the purpose of collecting, analyzing and publishing economic statistics. A review of two-digit NAICS codes allows for a broad analysis of industry sectors.
In 2019, retail trade and food services and accommodations contributed most to the region’s taxable sales, in all accounting for about 66 percent of the region’s taxable sales. Two other industries of note were the wholesale trade and manufacturing sectors, which provided a combined total of 14 percent of its reported taxable sales.
Northwest Region vs. the U.S.
Exhibit 15 shows how the region ranks with other states and the nation on a number of demographic and economic measures. The Northwest region would be the 41st largest state in terms of land area (just behind South Carolina) and would have the 51st largest population. It would also have the 16th lowest unemployment rate in 2019.
Exhibit 15
Northwest Region Compared to the U.S.
Measure
Northwest Region
Rank if Region
were a State
Texas
State Rank
U.S.
Square Miles
27,563
41
268,597
2
3,531,905
Population, 2019
550,497
51
28,995,881
2
328,239,523
Population with at Least a High School Diploma, 2018
84.9%
47
83.2%
49
87.7%
Population with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2018
20.0%
51
29.3%
28
31.5%
Population Under 18 Years, 2018
22.9%
20
25.8%
2
22.4%
Population 65 Years and Above, 2018
17.4%
14
12.6%
48
16.0%
Population Percent Change, 2010 to 2019
0.0%
47
15.3%
2
6.3%
Per Capita Income, 2018
$44,114
43
$50,355
26
$54,446
Unemployment Rate, 2019
3.1%
16
3.5%
27
3.7%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Northwest Regional Summary
The Northwest region and its 30 counties have many unique economic conditions and challenges. The region is significantly older than the state as a whole and is less diverse, with the lowest percentage of minority groups among regions. The region’s population growth has been stable since 2010 and job growth has been stagnant over the last decade. Since 2010, its high school graduation rate has consistently outperformed the state’s. The region’s receipts subject to state sales tax showed a slight upward trend following the 2009 recession, reaching a high point in 2014.
