This analysis predates the COVID-19 crisis and the economic impacts that followed. It is offered as an overview of the Upper East regional economy and a resource for comparative purposes.
The 23-county Upper East region encompasses about 16,000 square miles in the northeast corner of Texas, stretching from the Arkansas and Louisiana borders on the east to Cedar Creek Reservoir in the west.
The Upper East region includes three metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): the Longview MSA, comprising Gregg, Rusk and Upshur counties; the Texarkana MSA, which comprises Bowie County, and the Tyler MSA, comprising Smith County. Counties in the region not associated with an MSA include Anderson, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Delta, Franklin, Harrison, Henderson, Hopkins, Lamar, Marion, Morris, Panola, Rains, Red River, Titus, Van Zandt and Wood counties. The economic core of the Upper East region is the city of Tyler (Smith County).
This report examines regional economic trends including population, household income, jobs and wages and education, as well as economic conditions unique to the Upper East region.
Population
The Upper East region’s estimated total population in 2019 was about 1.2 million, or 4 percent of the state’s total population. This is an increase of 4.1 percent (more than 45,000 people) since the 2010 Census. An estimated 20 percent of the region’s population is concentrated in the Tyler MSA, which also represents slightly less than 1 percent of the state’s population.
From 2010 to 2019, the region’s population grew at a slower pace than the state.While the population of each county in the region changed during this period (Exhibit 1), Rains County outpaced all others, growing by 14.7 percent, on par with the state growth rate.
Exhibit 1
Upper East Region Population by County, 2010 and 2019
County
2010 Census
Estimate
(as of July 2019)
Change 2010 to 2019
Percent Change
Anderson
58,458
57,735
-723
-1.2%
Bowie
92,565
93,245
680
0.7%
Camp
12,401
13,094
693
5.6%
Cass
30,464
30,026
-438
-1.4%
Cherokee
50,845
52,646
1,801
3.5%
Delta
5,231
5,331
100
1.9%
Franklin
10,605
10,725
120
1.1%
Gregg
121,730
123,945
2,215
1.8%
Harrison
65,631
66,553
922
1.4%
Henderson
78,532
82,737
4,205
5.4%
Hopkins
35,161
37,084
1,923
5.5%
Lamar
49,793
49,859
66
0.1%
Marion
10,546
9,854
-692
-6.6%
Morris
12,934
12,388
-546
-4.2%
Panola
23,796
23,194
-602
-2.5%
Rains
10,914
12,514
1,600
14.7%
Red River
12,860
12,023
-837
-6.5%
Rusk
53,330
54,406
1,076
2.0%
Smith
209,714
232,751
23,037
11.0%
Titus
32,334
32,750
416
1.3%
Upshur
39,309
41,753
2,444
6.2%
Van Zandt
52,579
56,590
4,011
7.6%
Wood
41,964
45,539
3,575
8.5%
Tyler MSA
209,714
232,751
23,037
11.0%
Upper East Region Total
1,111,696
1,156,742
45,046
4.1%
Texas Total
25,145,561
28,995,881
3,850,320
15.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population Composition
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey, the median age of counties in the Upper East region is significantly higher than the state’s. In 2018, almost every county in the region (21 of 23) had a median age significantly higher than the state’s median age of 34.2 years. Marion County’s median age was more than 49, making it the region’s “oldest” county. The Tyler MSA’s median age of 36.3 years also was higher than the statewide median.
The Upper East region’s population in 2018 was 14.5 percent Hispanic, more than 24 percentage points lower than Hispanics’ 38.6 percent share of the state population (Exhibit 2). Non-Hispanic blacks represented 15.2 percent of the region’s population — 3.6 percentage points higher than the state average of 11.6 percent.
Household Income
In 2018, the Upper East region’s median household income was $48,967. Texas’ household income is generally distributed among five income levels (Exhibit 3). Of more than 9 million Texas households, 21 percent had incomes of less than $25,000 in 2018, while 17 percent had incomes greater than $125,000. In every region in the state, nearly 18 percent of households had average incomes between $50,000 and $75,000. Household income within the Upper East region was significantly lower than the state’s; however 29 percent of the region’s households reported average incomes exceeding $75,000, versus 38 percent of the state’s.
Exhibit 2
Upper East Region Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2018
Ethnicity
Upper East Region
State Total
Hispanic
14.5%
38.6%
Black (not Hispanic)
15.2%
11.6%
White (not Hispanic)
67.4%
43.4%
Other
2.9%
6.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Exhibit 3
Upper East Region and Texas Household Income Percentile, 2018
Income Level
Upper East Region
State Total
less than $25,000
25.9%
21.1%
$25,000 to $50,000
26.8%
23.0%
$50,000 to $75,000
18.2%
17.9%
$75,000 to $125,000
18.5%
20.6%
more than $125,000
10.6%
17.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Regional Industries
In 2019, the Upper East region accounted for 3.4 percent of the state’s total employment. Exhibit 4 lists the industries with the greatest regional employment concentrations compared to the national average, as measured by location quotient (LQ). LQ represents an industry’s proportionate concentration in the region; an LQ greater than 1.0 means that industry employment is more concentrated in the region than nationally. A high LQ can identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region, such as the ability to produce products more efficiently and of a higher quality.
Based on location quotients, the Upper East region is a leader in support activities for mining, pipeline transportation and oil and gas extraction, making its economy heavily reliant on the energy sector.
Exhibit 4
Top 10 Upper East Region Industries, 2019
Occupation
LQ
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
Support Activities for Mining
9.17
9,590
$77,526
Pipeline Transportation
4.88
756
$101,793
Oil and Gas Extraction
3.62
1,583
$117,281
Wood Product Manufacturing
2.71
3,327
$40,121
Forestry and Logging
2.71
473
$52,140
Paper Manufacturing
2.32
2,545
$64,131
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
2.31
786
$89,961
Animal Production and Aquaculture
2.23
1,780
$34,704
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
2.10
7,863
$55,652
Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing
2.05
170
$35,024
Total - All Industries
0.96
427,432
$44,034
Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
U.S. Military Installation Impact
Texas has 14 U.S. military installations within its borders. In 2019, these bases directly employed more than 226,000 and supported nearly 634,000 jobs in all. They also contributed an estimated $75.3 billion annually to the state’s gross domestic product (GDP). Red River Army Depot, the only military installation in the Upper East region, supported an estimated 10,500 jobs in 2019 and contributed about $1.1 billion to the state’s GDP (Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5
U.S. Military Impact on the Upper East Region
Estimated 2019
Region
Total Jobs Supported
Contribution to State GDP
Upper East
10,566
$1.1 billion
State of Texas
633,892
$75.3 billion
Sources: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Texas Military Preparedness Commission and REMI
From 2009 to 2019, the Upper East region’s employment increased by almost 6 percent. The Tyler MSA’s job count rose by more than 13 percent over the same period (Exhibit 6). About 25 percent of the region’s total jobs are in the Tyler MSA.
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Exhibit 6
Upper East Texas Region Employment Trends, 2019
Area
Number of Jobs (2019)
Actual Change (2009 to 2019)
Percent Change (2009 to 2019)
Tyler MSA
104,496
12,116
13.1%
Upper East Region
426,646
23,453
5.8%
Texas
12,531,100
2,284,407
22.3%
United States
147,886,638
17,768,373
13.7%
Note: Figures include private- and public-sector employees with the exception of active-duty military personnel, railroad employees, religious institution employees and the self-employed.
Sources: JobsEQ and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Significant Regional Occupations
The Upper East region’s most significant occupations are shown in Exhibits 7and 8, first by location quotient and second by numeric growth during the last five years.
Exhibit 7
Top Occupations in the Upper East Region by Location Quotient, 2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Extraction Workers
4,135
$43,000
6.02
5.6%
-1,493
Forest, Conservation, and Logging Workers
473
$38,300
2.36
6.5%
33
Woodworkers
1,777
$28,100
2.06
4.1%
162
Funeral Service Workers
406
$38,400
1.89
4.2%
44
Rail Transportation Workers
597
$52,300
1.88
0.9%
3
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Exhibit 8
Top Occupations in the Upper East Region by Numeric Growth, 2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Other Personal Care and Service Workers
14,602
$21,400
1.1
4.8%
3,606
Food and Beverage Serving Workers
14,031
$20,600
1.03
6.2%
3,021
Building Cleaning and Pest Control Workers
11,187
$21,900
0.99
4.9%
1,347
Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners
17,756
$93,500
1.03
1.0%
1,185
Top Executives
7,013
$104,600
0.87
1.7%
748
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Education
A strong educational foundation provides a cornerstone for growth and competitiveness in the global economy, offering opportunities for workplace advancement and business expansion.
Wages by Educational Attainment
Post-secondary education delivers a good return on investments of time and tuition. In the Upper East Texas region, workers with some college or associate degrees and with stable jobs — defined as those employed with the same firm throughout a calendar quarter — earned an average of $4,092 more annually in 2018 than those with a high school degree, while those with at least a bachelor’s degree earned an average of $18,557 more (Exhibit 9).
Exhibit 9
Average Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment, Upper East Region and Texas, 2018
Educational Attainment
Number Employed, Region
Percent of Region
Average Annual Earnings, Region
Number Employed, Texas
Percent of Texas
Average Annual Earnings, Texas
Less than High School
63,355
15.2%
$35,759
2,065,483
17.1%
$42,808
High School or Equivalent, No College
108,069
25.9%
$40,140
2,765,759
22.9%
$52,035
Some College or Associate Degree
118,258
28.3%
$44,232
3,245,675
26.9%
$60,428
Bachelor’s Degree or Advanced Degree
71,975
17.2%
$59,697
2,454,975
20.3%
$95,716
Educational Attainment Unavailable
55,679
13.3%
$21,089
1,544,282
12.8%
$22,087
Total
417,337
$42,167
12,076,174
$58,787
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and JobsEQ
The Upper East region’s high school graduation rate has outperformed the state’s since the 2009-10 school year. During the 2017-18 school year, 93.9 percent of the region’s class of public high school senior students graduated, higher than the state’s graduation rate of 90 percent (Exhibit 10).
Exhibit 10
Upper East Region Public High School Graduation Rates,
2009-10 to 2017-18 School Year
Region
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Upper East
91.1%
92.0%
93.1%
93.6%
93.6%
93.6%
93.4%
94.2%
93.9%
Texas
84.3%
85.9%
87.7%
88.0%
88.3%
89.0%
89.1%
89.7%
90.0%
Source: Texas Education Agency
Many high school graduates enroll in postsecondary programs, which offer greater job prospects and the possibility of higher wages. Residents of the Upper East region enjoy a variety of options for higher educational achievement (Exhibit 11).
Exhibit 11 Upper East Region Institutions of Higher Education
Universities
East Texas Baptist University
Jarvis Christian College
LeTourneau University
Texas A&M University – Texarkana
Texas College
The University of Texas at Tyler
Wiley College
Health Science Schools
The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler
Junior and Community Colleges
Jacksonville College
Kilgore College
Northeast Texas Community College
Panola College
Paris Junior College
Texarkana College
Texas State Technical College – Marshall
Trinity Valley Community College
Tyler Junior College
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
The Upper East region’s seven community college districts provided technical and academic coursework for about 37,000 students in the 2017-18 school year (Exhibit 12).
Exhibit 12
Upper East Region Community College Overview, 2017-18 School Year
*The percentage of academic or technical graduates employed in the fourth quarter of the calendar year after graduation and/or enrolled in a Texas two- or four-year institution in the following fall after graduation, as specified.
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
In that year, the region’s community colleges awarded about 2,700 certificates and associate degrees in general studies and liberal arts; the next most-common awards were for health professions and mechanic and repair technologies (Exhibit 13).
Exhibit 13
Top 10 Certificates and Degree Awards in the Upper East Region’s Community Colleges,
2017-18 School Year
Certificates and Degrees
Number Awarded
Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities
2,685
Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences
1,923
Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians
576
Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services
530
Engineering Technologies/Technicians
438
Precision Production
433
Personal and Culinary Services
409
Security and Protective Services
238
Education
164
Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
159
Source: JobsEQ
Regional Economy
The relative health of the Upper East region’s economy can be measured by its sales tax revenue and by comparisons with other areas on education, population, per capita income and unemployment rate. Together, these data are good indicators of the region’s economic dynamics and competitiveness.
Sales Tax Revenue
Sales taxes are inherently volatile in the short term but when reviewed over time can provide a useful indication of the state’s economic condition.
Sales receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributable to the Upper East region generally trended upward in the past decade, with declines during the Great recession and the severe fall in oil prices in 2016 (Exhibit 14). In 2019, taxable sales directly attributable to businesses in the Upper East region exceeded $12.8 billion, contributing about 2.3 percent to the state’s overall taxable sales. The Tyler MSA directly accounted for about $3.4 billion of this total.
Exhibit 14
Upper East Region, Taxable Sales, 2007-2019
Year
Revenue Upper East Region
2007
10.1 billion dollars
2008
10.9 billion dollars
2009
9.7 billion dollars
2010
9.8 billion dollars
2011
10.4 billion dollars
2012
10.7 billion dollars
2013
10.8 billion dollars
2014
11.6 billion dollars
2015
11.5 billion dollars
2016
11.2 billion dollars
2017
11.6 billion dollars
2018
12.4 billion dollars
2019
12.8 billion dollars
Note: Numbers shown are for reported revenue subject to sales tax and directly attributed to the region.
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
In 1997, the U.S., Canada and Mexico jointly released the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which classifies all business enterprises for the purpose of collecting, analyzing and publishing economic statistics. A review of two-digit NAICS codes allows for a broad analysis of industry sectors.
In 2019, the Upper East region’s retail trade and food services and accommodation sectors contribute most to taxable sales, with the two sectors together accounting for almost 66 percent of the region’s total. Two other industries of note are the wholesale trade and the manufacturing sectors, which produced about 13 percent of the region’s taxable sales.
Upper East Region vs. the U.S.
Exhibit 15 shows how the Upper East region compares with other states and the nation on several demographic and economic measures. As a state, the region would be the 42nd largest in the nation in terms of land area (just ahead of Maryland) and the 43rd largest by population.
Exhibit 15
Upper East Region Compared to the U.S.
Measure
Upper East Region
Rank if Region
were a State
Texas
State Rank
U.S.
Square Miles
15,943
42
268,597
2
3,531,905
Population, 2019
1,156,742
43
28,995,881
2
328,239,523
Population with at Least a High School Diploma 2018
84.0%
48
83.2%
49
87.7%
Population with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2018
19.0%
51
29.3%
28
31.5%
Population Under 18 Years, 2018
23.7%
10
25.8%
2
22.4%
Population 65 Years and Above, 2018
18.1%
9
12.6%
48
16.0%
Population Percent Change, 2010 to 2019
4.1%
25
15.3%
2
6.3%
Per Capita Income, 2018
$42,477
46
$50,355
26
$54,446
Unemployment Rate, 2019
3.7%
32
3.5%
27
3.7%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Upper East Texas Regional Summary
The Upper East region and its 23 counties have many unique economic conditions and challenges. The region features a diverse economy that is both rural and urban. Its economic hub is Smith County, the sole county in the Tyler MSA. It is the region’s most populous county as well as its second fastest growing.
The region has seen limited population growth since 2010. Its median age is significantly older than the state’s and its average household income is less than the statewide average. The U.S. military’s presence has had a positive economic impact on the region. Its high school graduation rate has reliably outperformed the state’s rate year after year, and the local economy has seen a steady increase in taxable sales since the 2009 recession.
